#163 overall · IND · 112.2 projected half-PPR pts · -33.6 Draft Value
Indianapolis Colts — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Indianapolis Colts defense has been one of the more consistent turnover-generating units in recent memory. Over the past three seasons, the Colts have averaged 15 interceptions, 15 fumbles forced, and 8.3 fumbles recovered per year. The 2023 season stands out: 51 sacks, 15 interceptions, 9 fumbles recovered, and 4 defensive touchdowns. That kind of production is the ceiling this unit has demonstrated it can reach. Even in leaner years, the interception total has held steady, hitting 16 in 2024 and 14 in 2025. For a drafter hunting late-round DST depth, the Colts have a documented track record of creating turnovers at a reliable rate.
What the model projects
The projection is 112.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. The Colts carry a draft value of -33.6, which places them below replacement level at the DST position. They rank DST20 by position and #163 overall, sitting in Tier 9. Their bye week is Week 13.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 51 | 15 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 415 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 145.0 |
| 2024 | 36 | 16 | 18 | 9 | — | — | 427 | — | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 99.0 |
| 2025 | 39 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 1 | — | 412 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 99.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 42 | 15 | 15 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 418 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 114.4 |
The range of outcomes
The three-season history frames the realistic outcome band. At their best, the Colts posted 51 sacks and 4 touchdowns in 2023. At their floor, they managed 36 sacks and 1 touchdown in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Points allowed has been persistently high across all three years: 415 in 2023, 427 in 2024, and 412 in 2025, with a three-year average of 418. That volume of points allowed limits the unit's fantasy ceiling in any given week. The sack total dropped sharply from 51 in 2023 to 36 in 2024 before recovering to 39 in 2025, so that category carries meaningful variance. Fumbles forced have also trended down, from 17 in 2023 to 10 in 2025. The interception rate is the most stable piece of the profile, but the overall trajectory of the counting stats points toward a unit that is more likely to land near the low end of its historical range than the high end.
How to draft him
The Colts are not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. At DST20 and #163 overall in Tier 9, this is a unit the model places well outside the top tier of streamable defenses. The -33.6 draft value signals a below-replacement projection. If you are targeting the Colts, the appropriate context is as a late-roster streaming option, not a set-and-forget starter. Their Week 13 bye is worth noting when building your roster schedule.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects 112.2 points and a draft value of -33.6, placing them at DST20 and #163 overall in Tier 9. That is a below-replacement projection, so the model does not treat them as a reliable starter in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Over the past three seasons they have averaged 15 interceptions, 15 fumbles forced, and 8.3 fumbles recovered per year. Interceptions have been the most consistent category, ranging from 14 to 16 across 2023-2025.
They have allowed 415, 427, and 412 points in the past three seasons, a three-year average of 418. High points-allowed totals reduce the frequency of shutout and low-score bonuses, which caps the unit's weekly upside regardless of turnover production.
Week 13. That is worth factoring into your roster construction if you are carrying the Colts as a streaming option.
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Beyond the numbers
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