#124 overall · IND · 110.7 projected half-PPR pts · -18.3 Draft Value
Indianapolis Colts — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Indianapolis Colts defense has been a consistent turnover-generating unit over the past three seasons. They averaged 15 interceptions and 15 forced fumbles per year from 2023 through 2025, with 8.3 fumble recoveries per season over that same stretch. The 2023 campaign stands out: 51 sacks, 15 interceptions, 17 forced fumbles, and 4 defensive touchdowns. Even in leaner years, the takeaway floor has held — 14 interceptions and 39 sacks in 2025. For a drafter who needs a late-round DST with a recognizable name and a real turnover history, the Colts check those boxes. Their bye falls in Week 13, which is late enough to avoid early-season roster headaches.
What the model projects
The projection is 110.7 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That produces a draft value of -18.3, meaning the Colts project below replacement level at the DST position on a 12-team half-PPR board. They rank DST11 at the position and #124 overall, placing them in Tier 9.
| INT | Sacks | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 15 | 51 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 415 | 142.0 |
| 2024 | 16 | 36 | 18 | 9 | — | — | 427 | 104.0 |
| 2025 | 14 | 39 | 10 | 7 | 1 | — | 412 | 97.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 15 | 42 | 15 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 418 | 114.4 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year averages tell a story of modest but real variance. Sacks have ranged from 36 to 51 in a single season; defensive touchdowns from 1 to 4. Points allowed have stayed in a tight band — 412 to 427 across all three years — which limits the upside from that scoring category. The 2023 season represents the ceiling the unit has demonstrated: 51 sacks, 4 touchdowns, 17 forced fumbles. The 2025 season — 39 sacks, 1 touchdown, 10 forced fumbles — represents the floor. The gap between those two profiles is meaningful, and which version shows up will largely determine whether this DST finishes as a usable streamer or a roster liability.
How to draft him
The Colts carry no market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, which means they are not being consistently drafted at this time. At DST11 and #124 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -18.3, this is a unit that projects below replacement level. If you roster them, plan to stream around their Week 13 bye and monitor matchups closely. There is no urgency to target them — the numbers do not demand it.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 110.7 points with a draft value of -18.3, meaning they project below replacement level. They rank DST11 and #124 overall in Tier 9. The numbers do not make a strong case for rostering them over a replacement-level option.
Over the 2023–2025 seasons, they averaged 15 interceptions, 15 forced fumbles, and 8.3 fumble recoveries per year. Interceptions have been remarkably consistent — 15, 16, and 14 in those three seasons respectively.
Week 13. That is a late-season bye, which means you would need a streaming replacement during a stretch when playoff races are typically heating up.
Significantly. They recorded 51 sacks in 2023, dropped to 36 in 2024, and came back to 39 in 2025 — a three-year average of 42. The 15-sack swing between their best and worst season is the single biggest variable in their fantasy ceiling.