#178 overall · SEA · 87.7 projected half-PPR pts · -34.9 Draft Value
Cooper Kupp — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Cooper Kupp is now in Seattle, and the argument for drafting him rests almost entirely on volume and touchdown upside. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 88.3 targets and 57.7 receptions per year, with a three-year average of 4.3 receiving touchdowns. In 2024 he drew 100 targets and caught 67 passes for 710 yards and 6 touchdowns — a line that, if replicated in a new offense, would represent meaningful fantasy production. The touchdowns are the lever: when they come in bunches, as they did in 2024, the stat line holds up. A drafter who believes in a touchdown rebound from his 2025 total of 2 has a real argument to make.
What the model projects
The projection is 87.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at WR63 and #178 overall, placing Kupp in Tier 9. His draft value is -34.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where the three-year trend has settled: 593 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in 2025, down from 710 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2024 and 737 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2023.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 95 | 59 | 737 | 5 | — | 0 | 0 | 132.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 100 | 67 | 710 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 141.5 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 47 | 593 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 91.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.3 | — | — | — | 0.3 | 1 | 2.3 | — | 88.3 | 57.7 | 680 | 4.3 | 0.7 | — | — | 122.6 |
The range of outcomes
Kupp's recent history illustrates exactly why the outcome band matters here. His per-season receiving yard totals over the last three years read 737, 710, and 593 — a consistent downward step. His receiving touchdowns read 5, 6, and 2. That touchdown line is the primary source of variance: a season closer to 6 scores looks very different from a season closer to 2. The three-year averages — 680 receiving yards, 57.7 receptions, 4.3 touchdowns on 88.3 targets — describe the middle of the range. The upside case requires the touchdown rate to recover; the downside case is a continuation of the 2025 trajectory.
How to draft him
Kupp is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no established draft-slot cost to plan around. At WR63 and #178 overall in Tier 9, he projects as a below-replacement-level option in a 12-team half-PPR league. He is a late-round flier at best — a name to circle only if you have already secured your starting receiver corps and are hunting for touchdown-dependent upside in the final rounds. His bye is Week 11, which is worth noting if you are managing a tight roster through the fantasy stretch run.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 87.7 points and a draft value of -34.9 place him below replacement level at wide receiver — WR63 and #178 overall in Tier 9. He is a depth/upside add rather than a starter, and only worth a spot if your core is already set.
He has seen 95, 100, and 70 targets over the past three seasons (2023–2025), averaging 88.3 per year over that span. The 2025 dip to 70 is the most recent data point.
Significantly. His receiving touchdowns were 5 in 2023, 6 in 2024, and just 2 in 2025. The three-year average is 4.3. A season near 6 scores versus a season near 2 represents a wide swing in his final point total, making touchdowns the key variable to watch.
There is no market ADP available — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is unowned or near-unowned in most public drafts, so there is no defined pick cost to plan around.