Cooper Kupp — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Cooper Kupp arrives in Seattle with three consecutive seasons of 95-plus targets, a floor that most receivers at his draft cost cannot match. Over the last three years he has averaged 88.3 targets, 57.7 receptions, 680 receiving yards, and 4.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2024 campaign was his most efficient of the three: 100 targets, 67 catches, 710 yards, and 6 touchdowns. The 2025 season stepped back to 70 targets, 47 catches, 593 yards, and 2 touchdowns, but the target volume across all three years has remained consistent enough to establish a real usage floor. A receiver who has seen 88 targets per year on average is not a dart throw. He is a known commodity in terms of how offenses deploy him, and that consistency is the core of any argument for rostering him.

What the model projects

The projection is 95.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That number places Kupp at WR63 and #162 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -33.4, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 81.2 points, which is below the point estimate of 95.4. Both numbers are worth holding in mind: the projection is the headline figure, and the median simulated outcome trails it by roughly 14 points.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 23.9 points. The 25th percentile sits at 47.6 points. The median lands at 81.2. The 75th percentile reaches 117.4 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 166.6 points. That is a spread of roughly 143 points between the p10 and p90, which signals substantial season-to-season variance. The upside case, 166.6 points, would represent a meaningful fantasy contributor. The downside case, 23.9 points, is near-zero fantasy value. Drafters need to be comfortable with both ends of that band before committing a pick.

How to draft him

Kupp is ranked #162 overall and WR63. His market ADP is 183.8, which translates to pick 16.04 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. In practical terms, that means he is coming off the board in the final rounds of most drafts. At that stage of a draft, a pick on Kupp is a bet on the upper end of a wide outcome band. The p90 ceiling of 166.6 points is real, but so is the p10 floor of 23.9. Tier 9 and a negative draft value tell you where the model stands. If you are building out the back of a roster and want a high-variance option with a documented target history, Kupp fits that role. Go in with clear eyes about the downside.

He has seen 95 targets in 2023, 100 in 2024, and 70 in 2025, for a three-year average of 88.3 per season. The volume has been consistent in the first two years and stepped back in 2025.

The projection is 95.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him WR63 and #162 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -33.4, which is below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.

His market ADP is 183.8, which works out to pick 16.04 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. He is coming off the board in the final rounds of most drafts.

The band runs from 23.9 points at the 10th percentile to 166.6 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 81.2 points. That is a spread of roughly 143 points between the worst and best 10 percent of simulated seasons, indicating high variance.