Rashod Bateman — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Bateman's 2024 season is the number that keeps him relevant in any conversation. He posted 756 receiving yards, 45 receptions on 72 targets, and 9 receiving touchdowns. That touchdown rate was real production, not a fluke of volume, and it came in a Baltimore offense that has consistently found ways to use its receivers in the red zone. The three-year aggregate tells a more complicated story: 449 receiving yards, 32 receptions, and 55.3 targets per season on average. But the 2024 line sits well above that average, and a drafter who believes that version of Bateman is the baseline has a legitimate argument. He is WR64 in the rankings, which means the cost of being wrong is low. At this stage of a draft, you are looking for upside, and the 2024 season proves the upside exists.

What the model projects

The projection is 94.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Bateman at #165 overall and WR64, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -34.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 94.1 is the headline number, and it reflects a player the model sees as a depth option rather than a starter in most leagues.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band here is wide, and that width is the most important thing to understand about Bateman as a fantasy asset. The p10 is 22.8 points, a near-total washout of a season. The p25 sits at 46.0, still well below useful fantasy production. The median simulated season lands at 79.4 points, short of the 94.1 point estimate, which signals the distribution is skewed by high-end outcomes pulling the average up. The p75 is 115.6 and the p90 reaches 165.2. That top-decile number is meaningful: one in ten simulated seasons produces a WR2-caliber output. The floor is genuinely low, and the median is modest, but the ceiling is real. This is a high-variance profile, not a steady-contributor one.

How to draft him

The market ADP is 417.3, which works out to pick 35.09 in a 12-team draft. That is deep into the territory where most snake drafts have already ended or are winding down. The adp is drawn from only two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a firm consensus. Bateman's bye is Week 13. Given the -34.9 draft value and WR64 position rank, he profiles as a late-round stash: a player you add in the final rounds hoping the 2024 version shows up. If you are building a roster that needs a high-ceiling dart throw at receiver, this is the range where that bet gets made. Do not count on the median; you are drafting the p90.

The projection of 94.1 points and a draft value of -34.9 put him below replacement level at WR, so he is not a reliable starter. However, his p90 outcome of 165.2 points and his 2024 season of 756 yards and 9 touchdowns show the upside is real. He fits as a late-round flier, not a core piece.

Not very. His three-year averages are 449 receiving yards, 32 receptions, and 55.3 targets per season, but the individual seasons vary sharply. In 2024 he posted 756 yards and 9 touchdowns. In 2023 he had 367 yards and 1 touchdown. In 2025 he had 224 yards and 2 touchdowns. The 2024 season stands well above the other two.

The floor is low: the p10 is 22.8 points and the p25 is 46.0. The median simulated season is 79.4 points. The ceiling is meaningful: the p75 is 115.6 and the p90 is 165.2. This is a high-variance profile where the downside is a near-zero fantasy contribution and the upside is a productive WR2-range season.

The market ADP is 417.3, or pick 35.09 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Most standard snake drafts end well before that pick, so he is likely available as a free-agent add in many leagues rather than a draft-day decision.