#171 overall · BAL · 90.6 projected half-PPR pts · -31.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 186.7
Rashod Bateman — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Rashod Bateman's 2024 season is the number that keeps him relevant in late-round conversations. He hauled in 45 receptions for 756 yards and 9 receiving touchdowns on 72 targets — a touchdown rate that made him a genuine fantasy contributor. That kind of scoring production on a Baltimore offense is not a fluke of volume; it is a function of red-zone opportunity, and Bateman demonstrated he can cash in when those chances arrive. His 2025 line — 19 receptions, 224 yards, and 2 touchdowns on 38 targets — was a significant step back, but the 2024 ceiling is on the record. For a drafter willing to wait until the final rounds, that ceiling is the entire argument.
What the model projects
The projection for Bateman is 90.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That places him #171 overall and WR62, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -31.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position. These are the numbers — they reflect a player whose recent production has been inconsistent and whose role in the offense has not been stable enough to project a full-season workload with confidence.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 56 | 32 | 367 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 60.5 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 45 | 756 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 152.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 19 | 224 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 43.9 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | 6 | — | 55.3 | 32 | 449 | 4 | — | — | 85.5 |
The range of outcomes
Bateman's three-year averages tell the story of variance: 55.3 targets, 32 receptions, 449 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season. But those averages are pulled in opposite directions by a 2024 campaign (756 yards, 9 TDs) and a 2025 campaign (224 yards, 2 TDs) that look nothing alike. The outcome band on his projection reflects that spread. A floor season looks a lot like 2025 — limited targets, modest yardage, minimal scoring. A ceiling season looks closer to 2024, where the touchdown volume alone carried his fantasy value. The gap between those two outcomes is wide, and there is no recent trend pointing firmly in either direction.
How to draft him
Bateman's market ADP is 186.7 — pick 16.07 in a 12-team draft, drawn from two platforms. That is deep-bench territory, the kind of pick where you are drafting upside rather than a guaranteed role. He is ranked #171 overall and WR62 with a negative draft value, so he enters your roster as a speculative add, not a building block. Draft him only after your starting lineup and primary depth are locked in. His bye is Week 13, which is a consideration if you are managing a playoff push. At this stage of a draft, the ask is low — the question is whether the 2024 version of Bateman shows up or the 2025 version does.
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Questions drafters ask
He posted 45 receptions for 756 yards and 9 receiving touchdowns on 72 targets in 2024 — his most productive season in the FACTS window.
His draft value is -31.9 and he ranks WR62, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the position. He is a late-round speculative pick, not a core roster piece — the 2024 ceiling is the reason to take a flier, not the baseline expectation.
His market ADP is 186.7, which works out to pick 16.07 in a 12-team draft. That is based on a median across two platforms, so treat it as a rough guide rather than a precise number.
His three-year averages (2023–2025) are 55.3 targets, 32 receptions, 449 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season — but those averages mask wide swings, from 9 TDs and 756 yards in 2024 down to 2 TDs and 224 yards in 2025.