Greg Dortch — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Greg Dortch has posted back-to-back seasons of growth in targets and production. He went from 41 targets and 280 receiving yards in 2023 to 50 targets and 342 receiving yards in 2024, then added a rushing dimension in 2025 with 7 rush attempts, 15 rush yards, and a rush touchdown to go alongside 33 targets, 29 receptions, 206 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 41.3 targets, 30 receptions, 276 receiving yards, 2.7 receiving touchdowns, and 0.3 rush touchdowns per season. The touchdown rate is the most compelling piece: 2.7 receiving scores per season on a modest target share is a real number, and the added rushing role in 2025 gives him a second path to the end zone. Now with Detroit, he enters a new situation that drafters will want to monitor.

What the model projects

The projection for Dortch is 52.0 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value is -76.5, placing him #290 overall and WR99 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting well below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline number; the median simulated season, at 33.9 points, runs below it, which signals that the distribution of outcomes is skewed toward the upside rather than centered on the point estimate.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide and heavily skewed. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 1.0 points, and the 25th percentile sits at just 13.9. The median simulated season lands at 33.9 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 66.7 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 108.5. That gap between the p10 and p90, from 1.0 to 108.5, is among the widest possible shapes for a late-depth receiver. The floor is essentially zero. The ceiling, while requiring a favorable set of circumstances, is a genuinely usable fantasy season. Drafters taking Dortch are accepting near-zero probability of a reliable weekly contributor in exchange for a low-cost lottery ticket on the high end.

How to draft him

Dortch does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, he is a free agent on most draft days, available as a late-round or post-draft addition. At WR99 and #290 overall in Tier 9, he belongs at the very back of a roster, taken only after every meaningful positional need is addressed. His value is entirely contingent: if the Detroit situation develops in his favor and the touchdown rate from his three-year history repeats, the 108.5-point ceiling becomes relevant. Until then, he is a depth stash with a near-zero floor and a cost to match.

At WR99 and #290 overall with a draft value of -76.5, he projects well below replacement level. He carries essentially no floor, with 10% of simulated seasons finishing at or below 1.0 points. The case for rostering him rests entirely on his 90th-percentile ceiling of 108.5 points and his three-year average of 2.7 receiving touchdowns per season, which is a real number on a modest target share. He is a late-depth stash, not a reliable starter.

Over the 2023-2025 seasons he averaged 41.3 targets per year. The peak was 50 targets in 2024; 2025 came in at 33 targets. Receptions averaged 30 per season. That is a limited but consistent role, not a featured receiver workload.

Yes, in a limited way. In 2025 he logged 7 rush attempts for 15 yards and 1 rush touchdown. Over the three-year aggregate he averaged 4.3 rush attempts and 0.3 rush touchdowns per season. It is a secondary contribution, but it does give him a second path to scoring.

The projection is 52.0 points, but the median simulated season is 33.9, meaning the distribution is skewed upward. The full band runs from 1.0 at the p10 to 108.5 at the p90. That is a 107.5-point spread between the bad-season floor and the great-season ceiling, reflecting high variance for a player in a depth role.