Nate Boerkircher — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Nate Boerkircher is a tight end on the Jacksonville Jaguars with a bye in Week 7. At TE36 and #267 overall, he sits in Tier 9 of the rankings. The honest case for drafting him is a thin one at this stage: he is a deep-roster option for managers who need a late-week stash or a handcuff at the position. His projected 48.2 half-PPR points represent a below-replacement-level outlook, and his draft value of -72.3 reflects that plainly. If you are building a deep roster and need a speculative tight end, he is available.

What the model projects

The projection is 48.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His draft value is -72.3, meaning the projection sits below the replacement-level baseline for tight ends in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is ranked TE36 at the position and #267 overall. These numbers describe a player on the outer edge of the positional rankings, not a starter in most formats.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The median outcome (p50) is 46.4 points, close to the projection of 48.2. A bad season lands at 9.9 points (p10) or 23.8 points (p25). A strong season reaches 71.0 points (p75) or 104.8 points (p90). That p90 ceiling of 104.8 is the one number that keeps him on a watch list: roughly one in ten simulated seasons produces a genuinely usable tight end. The floor, however, is very low, and the median confirms this is a high-variance, low-expectation profile.

How to draft him

Boerkircher does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In a standard 12-team snake draft, he is a free agent in most leagues or a final-round flier at best. There is no pick cost to budget for him right now. Monitor his situation heading into the season; if something changes in the depth chart around him, the p90 ceiling of 104.8 points gives him a reason to revisit.

At TE36 and #267 overall with a draft value of -72.3, he projects below replacement level. His median simulated season is 46.4 points. He is a speculative stash, not a reliable starter, and is not currently registering a consistent ADP in public drafts.

The p90 outcome from the simulated season band is 104.8 half-PPR points, meaning roughly one in ten simulated seasons reaches that level. That is the ceiling the numbers support. The p75 outcome is 71.0 points.

Boerkircher does not have a market ADP available across public 2026 drafts. He is not being selected consistently enough to produce a median draft position, so there is no specific round or pick to target right now.

The p10 simulated outcome is 9.9 half-PPR points and the p25 is 23.8 points. Those are very low floors, and they are a significant part of why his draft value sits at -72.3.