#261 overall · NE · 56.7 projected half-PPR pts · -65.8 Draft Value
Mack Hollins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Mack Hollins is on the New England roster with three consecutive seasons of target volume growth behind him. He saw 30 targets in 2023, 50 in 2024, and 65 in 2025 — a steady climb that produced 550 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in his most recent campaign. His 2024 season showed he can find the end zone, with 5 receiving touchdowns on 50 targets. Over the three-year window, he averages 48.3 targets, 31.7 receptions, 393 receiving yards, and 2.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The trajectory is real, and the 2025 season represents his clearest evidence of a role that can sustain fantasy relevance.
What the model projects
The projection for Hollins in 2026 is 56.7 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -65.8, meaning he projects below replacement level at the wide receiver position. He ranks #261 overall and WR82, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. New England's bye week falls in Week 11.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 18 | 251 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 34.1 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 31 | 378 | 5 | — | 0 | 0 | 83.3 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 65 | 46 | 550 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 90.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | 1.3 | — | 48.3 | 31.7 | 393 | 2.3 | 0.3 | — | — | 69.1 |
The range of outcomes
Hollins carries meaningful variance around that 56.7-point projection. His recent history illustrates the spread: a zero-touchdown, 251-yard season in 2023 sits alongside a 5-touchdown, 378-yard season in 2024, and a 2-touchdown, 550-yard season in 2025. The year-to-year swings in touchdowns alone — 0, 5, 2 — capture how wide his outcome band can run. A season where the touchdowns cluster toward the high end looks very different from one where they don't arrive at all.
How to draft him
Hollins does not have a market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, which means he is not being consistently drafted in standard snake formats. At WR82 and #261 overall with a negative draft value, he is a late-roster or waiver-wire consideration rather than a pick you plan around. If you are targeting him, he fits as a deep bench stash in formats where roster spots allow for speculative upside plays — specifically the touchdown variance his 2024 season demonstrated is possible.
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Questions drafters ask
His projection is 56.7 half-PPR points and his draft value is -65.8, placing him below replacement level at WR. He ranks WR82 and #261 overall in Tier 9. He has no market ADP across public platforms, meaning the consensus is that he goes undrafted in standard formats.
He has seen his targets grow each of the last three seasons: 30 in 2023, 50 in 2024, and 65 in 2025. His three-year average is 48.3 targets per season.
Very. He scored 0 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 5 in 2024, and 2 in 2025 — a three-year average of 2.3 per season. That swing is the primary driver of his season-to-season fantasy point variance.
He has no market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, so he is not being consistently selected in snake drafts. He is effectively an undrafted free agent in standard formats.