Mack Hollins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Mack Hollins has posted three consecutive seasons of positive target growth. He saw 30 targets in 2023, 50 in 2024, and 65 in 2025, the clearest trend in his recent history. The 2025 season was his most productive on record: 46 receptions for 550 yards and 2 touchdowns. His three-year averages sit at 48.3 targets, 31.7 receptions, 393 receiving yards, and 2.3 receiving touchdowns per season. For a drafter building a deep roster late in a snake draft, that trajectory is the argument. He is a receiver who has expanded his role in each of the last three years, and the 2025 line is the best evidence that the expansion is real.

What the model projects

The projection is 53.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits below replacement level for the wide receiver position: the draft value is -74.9, placing Hollins at WR92 and #278 overall in Tier 9. The projection reflects a receiver whose recent volume has grown but whose absolute production still lands well outside the range where fantasy value is generated at scale in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is 11.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide, which is the defining feature of Hollins as a fantasy asset. The p10 floor is 1.7 points, a near-zero season. The p25 is 14.9 points and the median simulated season lands at 35.6 points. The upside end of the band is more interesting: the p75 is 68.6 points and the p90 reaches 111.1 points. That top-decile outcome is roughly double the point estimate of 53.8, meaning the scenarios where Hollins delivers usable fantasy production are real but far from the most likely result. The gap between the median and the p90 is the entire case for rostering him; the gap between the median and the p10 is the risk.

How to draft him

Hollins is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to anchor to. In practice, that means he is available as a free addition in most drafts rather than a pick expenditure. His rank is #278 overall and WR92, both deep into Tier 9. At that level, the calculus is simple: he costs nothing to roster if he goes undrafted, and his p90 outcome of 111.1 points gives him a ceiling worth a late flier if your roster construction allows it. Do not spend a meaningful pick to get here.

His draft value is -74.9, which puts him below replacement level at WR92 and #278 overall. The projection is 53.8 points. In most drafts he will go undrafted entirely, so the cost is zero. The only reason to roster him is the p90 outcome of 111.1 points, which shows a real if unlikely ceiling. He is a zero-cost speculative add, not a pick investment.

He has seen targets increase in each of the last three seasons: 30 in 2023, 50 in 2024, and 65 in 2025. His three-year average is 48.3 targets per season. The 2025 season also produced his career-best receiving line: 46 receptions, 550 yards, and 2 touchdowns.

The band runs from 1.7 points at the p10 to 111.1 points at the p90. The median simulated season is 35.6 points. The floor is essentially zero production, and the median is well below replacement level. The upside is real but requires a top-decile outcome to matter in fantasy.

There is no market ADP available for Hollins, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. In most 12-team snake drafts he will be available on waivers after the draft concludes rather than requiring a pick at all.