#126 overall · SF · 108.6 projected half-PPR pts · -20.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 119.1
Deebo Samuel — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Deebo Samuel is a genuine dual-threat weapon. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 89.7 targets, 61 receptions, 763 receiving yards, and 32 rush attempts per year. The rushing role is real: he has logged 37, 42, and 17 rush attempts in those three seasons, adding a layer of production that pure receivers cannot match. His best season in that window, 2023, produced 892 receiving yards, 60 receptions on 89 targets, 225 rush yards, and a combined 12 touchdowns. The 2025 campaign showed a target spike to 99 with 72 receptions and 5 receiving touchdowns, signaling that the receiving volume is still there. For a drafter willing to absorb variance, the upside is real.
What the model projects
The projection is 108.6 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That number places Samuel at WR54 and #126 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -20.1, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages that feed into this picture include 763 receiving yards, 5 receiving touchdowns, 145.3 rush yards, and 2.3 rushing touchdowns per season. The 2024 line, which showed a drop to 670 receiving yards, 136 rush yards, and 4 combined touchdowns, is part of that picture as well.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 89 | 60 | 892 | 7 | 37 | 225 | 5 | 1 | 213.7 |
| 2024 | 81 | 51 | 670 | 3 | 42 | 136 | 1 | — | 130.1 |
| 2025 | 99 | 72 | 727 | 5 | 17 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 152.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 89.7 | 61 | 763 | 5 | 32 | 145.3 | 2.3 | 1 | 165.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Samuel finishes at 35.7 points, a near-total loss of fantasy value. The 25th percentile lands at 64.0 points, still well below replacement. The median simulated season is 100.3 points, close to but slightly below the 108.6 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 135.9 points, and the 90th percentile climbs to 181.1 points. That top-decile outcome represents a genuinely useful fantasy season. The spread from p10 to p90 covers 145.4 points, which is a wide band by any measure. Drafters should enter this pick knowing the floor is low and the ceiling is meaningful.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Samuel at pick 119.1 on average, which works out to round 10, pick 11 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. His bye is Week 8, worth noting for roster management in the middle of the season. Given the negative draft value and the wide downside band, he fits best as a late-round flier for drafters who want exposure to his dual-threat ceiling without committing an early pick. If the 2023 version of Samuel shows up, the round-10 cost looks fine. If the floor scenarios materialize, the late-round price limits the damage.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 108.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him WR54 and #126 overall, placing him in Tier 9 with a draft value of -20.1.
Over 2023 through 2025, he averaged 32 rush attempts and 145.3 rush yards per season. The individual season totals were 37 attempts for 225 yards in 2023, 42 attempts for 136 yards in 2024, and 17 attempts for 75 yards in 2025.
The p10 floor is 35.7 points and the p25 is 64.0 points, both well below replacement level. The median simulated season is 100.3 points. The upside runs to 135.9 points at the 75th percentile and 181.1 points at the 90th percentile.
The market ADP is 119.1, which translates to round 10, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him based on where he is currently going across public drafts.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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