#127 overall · BUF · 109.3 projected half-PPR pts · -19.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 126.2
Khalil Shakir — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Khalil Shakir has posted back-to-back seasons of genuine volume in Buffalo. In 2024 he logged 100 targets, 76 receptions, 821 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns. In 2025 he followed with 95 targets, 72 receptions, 719 receiving yards, and 4 more touchdowns. Averaged across the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he has seen 80 targets, caught 62.3 passes, gained 717 receiving yards, and scored 3.3 receiving touchdowns per year. That is a consistent, established role in a high-volume passing offense. For a drafter working the back end of a snake draft, that kind of target floor is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 109.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -19.2, placing him WR54 and #127 overall in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number is real production; the rank reflects how deep the position runs at this tier.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 45 | 39 | 611 | 2 | 1 | 10 | — | 93.6 |
| 2024 | 100 | 76 | 821 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 144.5 |
| 2025 | 95 | 72 | 719 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 130.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 80 | 62.3 | 717 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 123.3 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 36.3 points, a near-zero fantasy season. The 25th percentile is 64.7 points. The median simulated season is 101.3 points, close to but not identical to the 109.3 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 136.9 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons produces 182.0 points. That spread from 36.3 to 182.0 is substantial, meaning the difference between a bust and a genuine weekly contributor is very much in play. His bye week falls in Week 7.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 126.2, drawn from 2 platforms, which works out to pick 11.06 in a 12-team draft. That is the 6th pick of Round 11. At that draft slot, a drafter is spending a late-round pick on a player who has demonstrated two consecutive seasons of 95-plus targets. The projection of 109.3 points and the WR54 rank set expectations honestly: this is a depth or flex option, not a starter by the numbers. Draft him in Round 11 if you want a receiver with a documented target share behind him, and enter the season with realistic expectations about the ceiling the rank reflects.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He has posted 100 targets in 2024 and 95 in 2025, with a three-year average of 80 targets per season. That is a documented role, not a speculative one. The wide outcome band (p10: 36.3, p90: 182.0) reflects season-to-season variance, but the target history is real.
The projection is 109.3 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks WR54 and #127 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -19.2, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Market ADP is 126.2 across 2 platforms, which translates to pick 11.06 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, Round 11 is when you need to spend the pick.
The simulated season band tells that story directly. A bad season (bottom 10%) is 36.3 points. A typical season (median) is 101.3 points. A strong season (top 10%) reaches 182.0 points. The gap between those outcomes is large, so roster construction around him should account for that variance.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →