#108 overall · BUF · 112.3 projected half-PPR pts · -10.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 106.4
Khalil Shakir — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Khalil Shakir has quietly built a consistent role in Buffalo's offense over three seasons. After posting 39 receptions on 45 targets for 611 yards in 2023, he stepped forward in 2024 with 76 catches on 100 targets for 821 yards and 4 touchdowns — a clear expansion of his workload. He followed that with 72 receptions on 95 targets for 719 yards and 4 more touchdowns in 2025. Averaged across those three seasons, he has seen 80 targets, hauled in 62.3 receptions, and produced 717 receiving yards per year with 3.3 receiving touchdowns. The target volume is real, the catch rate is reliable, and the touchdown production has been consistent. For a drafter looking for a floor-oriented receiver late in a snake draft, Shakir's track record of involvement is the foundation of the case.
What the model projects
The model projects Shakir at 112.3 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That projection places him at WR50 and #108 overall, landing him in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value sits at -10.3, meaning the projection comes in below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The numbers reflect a player whose volume is real but whose ceiling, as currently projected, does not clear the bar needed to return surplus value over a freely available replacement.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 45 | 39 | 611 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 93.6 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 100 | 76 | 821 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 144.5 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 95 | 72 | 719 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 130.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 1.3 | 6.3 | — | 80 | 62.3 | 717 | 3.3 | 0.7 | — | — | 123.3 |
The range of outcomes
Shakir's season-to-season history illustrates the variance a drafter should expect. His target share has ranged from 45 in 2023 to 100 in 2024, with 95 in 2025 — the difference between a peripheral role and a genuine featured slot. Touchdown production has been the other swing factor: he scored 2 in 2023 and 4 in each of the two seasons since. A season where targets dip back toward 2023 levels would push his fantasy output well below the projection. A season where he sustains or grows the 95–100 target range and catches a fifth or sixth touchdown would push him meaningfully above it. He has also fumbled in each of the last two seasons, a minor but real downside risk. The band of realistic outcomes is wide enough that roster construction context matters when deciding whether to carry him.
How to draft him
Market ADP for Shakir sits at 106.4 — pick 9.10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #108 overall. His bye week is 7, which falls early enough that it should not materially affect draft-day decisions. If you want him, the ninth round is where you will need to spend the pick. Given that his projected draft value is negative, he is best treated as a depth or flex option rather than a core piece of a roster build — useful if the right situation develops, but not a player to reach for ahead of his current market slot.
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Questions drafters ask
Shakir saw 45 targets in 2023, 100 in 2024, and 95 in 2025, for a three-year average of 80 targets per season. The jump from 2023 to 2024 was significant, and he largely held that volume in 2025.
The model projects him at 112.3 half-PPR fantasy points, which ranks him WR50 and #108 overall. He sits in Tier 9 with a draft value of -10.3, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
His market ADP is 106.4, which translates to pick 9.10 in a 12-team draft. That figure is a median drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a reasonable but not definitive guide to where he comes off the board.
His 2023 season — 45 targets, 39 receptions, 611 yards, and 2 touchdowns — shows what a reduced role looks like. If his target share contracts back toward that level, his fantasy output would fall well short of the 112.3-point projection. He has also fumbled in each of the last two seasons, adding a small but real floor risk.