Bo Nix — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Bo Nix has back-to-back seasons of volume. In 2024 he attempted 567 passes for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns. In 2025 that volume grew: 612 attempts, 3,931 yards, and 25 touchdowns. The three-year average sits at 589.5 attempts, 3,853 passing yards, and 27 passing touchdowns per season. He adds a rushing dimension that holds up across both years: 92 attempts and 430 yards on the ground in 2024, 83 attempts and 356 yards in 2025, with 4 and 5 rushing touchdowns respectively. That dual-threat floor is real and consistent. For a drafter who needs a late-round quarterback with a known workload, Nix checks the volume box.

What the model projects

The projection is 239.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Nix at #129 overall and QB14, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -19.8, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 239.7 and the median simulated season of 227.0 are close but not identical; both are reported here because they tell slightly different stories about the central expectation.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 91.3 points. The 25th percentile is 167.8 points. The median simulated season is 227.0 points. The 75th percentile reaches 295.9 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 352.9 points. That is a spread of more than 260 points between the p10 and p90 outcomes. The interception numbers from his history add context to the downside: 12 picks in 2024, 11 in 2025, averaging 11.5 over three years. Fumbles have also been a factor, with 2 in 2024 and 4 in 2025. The upside at p90 is genuine, but the floor at p10 is low enough to take seriously.

How to draft him

Market ADP has Nix going at pick 115.4, which works out to round 10, pick 7 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. His bye is Week 10. At QB14 with a negative draft value, Nix profiles as a late-round streaming option or a second quarterback in a two-QB strategy. The wide outcome band means the upside is there if the passing touchdowns climb and the turnover rate drops, but the projection at 239.7 points does not demand an early commitment. Plan to address the position earlier if you want a safer floor; if you are willing to ride the variance, round 10 is when the market says you need to act.

The projection is 239.7 points and the draft value is -19.8, placing him below replacement level at QB in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks QB14 and #129 overall in Tier 9. He is a viable streaming option or a second quarterback, but the numbers do not support him as a primary starter in most formats.

Over the past two seasons Nix has averaged 87.5 rush attempts, 393 rush yards, and 4.5 rushing touchdowns per year. That is a consistent on-the-ground contribution that shows up in both the 2024 and 2025 stat lines.

It is real. Nix threw 12 interceptions in 2024 and 11 in 2025, for a three-year average of 11.5. He also fumbled 2 times in 2024 and 4 times in 2025, losing 2 of those in 2025. The p10 simulated season lands at just 91.3 points, which reflects how much the floor can drop when turnovers pile up.

Market ADP puts him at pick 115.4, round 10, pick 7 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you are targeting him as a late-round quarterback, that is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him.