#176 overall · DEN · 233.1 projected half-PPR pts · -34.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 123.2
Bo Nix — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Bo Nix has back-to-back seasons of 550-plus pass attempts, and the volume is real. In 2024 he threw 567 times for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns. In 2025 that climbed to 612 attempts, 3,931 yards, and 25 touchdowns. The three-year averages — 589.5 attempts, 3,853 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 87.5 rush attempts, and 393 rush yards per season — paint a picture of a quarterback who sees a heavy workload on both sides of the ball. The rushing contribution is consistent: 430 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground in 2024, 356 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2025. Denver keeps feeding him carries, and that floor matters in half-PPR formats. If you need a late-round QB2 with a defined role and a known workload, Nix checks those boxes.
What the model projects
The projection for Nix in 2026 is 233.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -34.3, placing him QB14 at the position and #176 overall. He lands in Tier 9 on the board. The negative draft value reflects where replacement-level production at quarterback falls in a 12-team half-PPR context — Nix projects below that line. Denver's bye is Week 10.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 567 | 376 | 3775 | 29 | 12 | 92 | 430 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 328.7 |
| 2025 | 612 | 388 | 3931 | 25 | 11 | 83 | 356 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 307.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 589.5 | 382 | 3853 | 27 | 11.5 | 87.5 | 393 | 4.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 3 | — | — | 320.3 |
The range of outcomes
Nix's profile carries real variance. The interception numbers have been consistent and notable — 12 in 2024, 11 in 2025, averaging 11.5 over the three-year window. Fumbles have ticked up, with 4 in 2025 and 2 lost. Those turnover rates can compress a season's fantasy ceiling in a hurry. On the upside, the rushing volume has been durable across both seasons, and any uptick in passing efficiency or touchdown rate could push his point total meaningfully higher. The workload is not in question; the efficiency around it is where the outcome range lives.
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Nix at pick 123.2 on average — that's the 11th round, 3rd pick in a 12-team draft (11.03), based on a median across two platforms. Our model has him at #176 overall and QB14. At his adp, you are spending a mid-to-late-round pick on a quarterback who projects below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR league. The right use case is as a streaming option or a QB2 in a two-QB or Superflex format where the position scarcity math changes. In a single-QB league, the calculus is tighter — know what you are buying before you spend that pick.
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Questions drafters ask
He rushed 92 times for 430 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2024, then 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2025. The three-year average is 87.5 rush attempts and 393 rush yards per season.
He threw 12 interceptions in 2024 and 11 in 2025, for a three-year average of 11.5. Combined with 2 fumbles lost in 2025, the turnover rate is a consistent part of his profile and is reflected in a projected 233.1 points and a draft value of -34.3.
The market is currently taking him at an average pick of 123.2, which works out to round 11, pick 3 in a 12-team draft. That is based on a median across two platforms.
The model projects him at 233.1 half-PPR points with a draft value of -34.3 and a position rank of QB14 — below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR baseline. He profiles as a streaming option or QB2 rather than a locked-in weekly starter.