#10 overall · DAL · 197.7 projected half-PPR pts · +75.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 13.1
CeeDee Lamb — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
CeeDee Lamb is WR5 on this board with a +75.2 draft value surplus — firmly in Tier 3 across all positions. His three-year averages tell the story: 150 targets, 103.7 receptions, and 1,340 receiving yards per season. The 2023 peak — 181 targets, 135 catches, 1,749 receiving yards, and 12 receiving touchdowns — established him as one of the most target-saturated receivers in the league. Even in 2024, when touchdowns dipped to 6 and yardage fell to 1,194, he still commanded 152 targets and 101 receptions. The volume floor is real and it has been consistent.
What the model projects
The projection is 197.7 half-PPR fantasy points, placing Lamb #10 overall. That point estimate sits well above replacement level at the wide receiver position — a +75.2 draftValue surplus. The three-year receiving touchdown average of 7.0 per season anchors the scoring upside, while the target average of 150 per season underpins the floor. Both inputs are grounded in what Lamb has actually done, not assumptions about a breakout.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 113 | 2 | 181 | 135 | 1749 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 333.7 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 70 | 0 | 152 | 101 | 1194 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 210.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 117 | 75 | 1077 | 3 | — | 0 | 0 | 163.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 9.7 | 61.7 | 0.7 | 150 | 103.7 | 1340 | 7 | 1.3 | — | — | 238.2 |
The range of outcomes
Lamb's season-to-season variance is visible in the historical record. In 2023 he posted 1,749 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns; in 2025 those numbers fell to 1,077 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 117 targets. The three-year receiving touchdown average of 7.0 sits between those poles, and the target range of 117–181 across those same seasons defines the realistic band of outcomes. A high-end season looks closer to 2023; a low-end season looks closer to 2025. The projection of 197.7 points reflects the middle of that distribution, not the ceiling.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Lamb going at pick 13.1 — that is the 1st pick of Round 2 in a 12-team draft (2.01), based on a median across two platforms. Our board has him at #10 overall and WR5. Plan accordingly: if you want him, you will need to spend your second-round pick. Dallas has a Week 14 bye, so factor that into your roster construction when building around him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
Lamb has averaged 150 targets per season over the 2023–2025 stretch, with a high of 181 in 2023 and a low of 117 in 2025.
He is ranked #10 overall and WR5, with a projected 197.7 half-PPR fantasy points and a +75.2 draft value surplus above replacement level.
Market ADP puts him at pick 13.1 — the 1st pick of Round 2 (2.01) in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys are on bye in Week 14.