#19 overall · MIN · 194.6 projected half-PPR pts · +65.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 13.7
Justin Jefferson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Justin Jefferson is one of the most target-heavy wide receivers in recent NFL history, and the numbers back that up. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 131.7 targets and 85 receptions per year, with a peak of 154 targets and 103 catches in 2024. That 2024 season also produced 1,533 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, the kind of volume-plus-efficiency combination that anchors fantasy rosters. Even in 2025, when his touchdown total dipped to 2, he still drew 141 targets and posted 1,048 receiving yards. The floor on his target share is real, and that is the foundation of the case for drafting him.
What the model projects
The projection for Jefferson is 194.6 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at +65.9, meaning he projects 65.9 points above replacement level at the wide receiver position. That places him at WR7 and #19 overall, inside Tier 4 of the rankings. His bye week is Week 6, which is worth noting for roster management early in the season.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 100 | 68 | 1074 | 5 | 1 | -12 | 1 | 168.2 |
| 2024 | 154 | 103 | 1533 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 266.0 |
| 2025 | 141 | 84 | 1048 | 2 | 2 | 7 | — | 159.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 131.7 | 85 | 1218.3 | 5.7 | 1.3 | -0.7 | 0.7 | 198.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for Jefferson runs from 117.2 points at the 10th percentile to 271.4 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season lands at 205.2 points, slightly above the 194.6 point projection. The 25th percentile is 160.0 and the 75th is 239.0, so the middle half of his outcomes spans roughly 79 points. The downside scenario at p10 reflects a season where targets and touchdowns both compress significantly; the upside at p90 reflects a season closer to his 2024 peak. The width of that band is a function of how much his touchdown rate can swing from year to year, as the three-season average of 5.7 receiving touchdowns sits well below his 2024 high of 10.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP for Jefferson is 13.7, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 2.02 in a 12-team snake draft. That means you are committing a second-round pick to land him. His ranking is #19 overall and WR7. Plan your first round accordingly, because if you want Jefferson on your roster, the second round is when the pick gets spent.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 194.6 half-PPR points. His actual totals over the past three seasons have varied considerably: 2024 was his high-water mark, with 1,533 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while 2025 produced 1,048 yards and just 2 touchdowns. The three-year average of 5.7 receiving touchdowns sits between those extremes, and the projection reflects that range.
Market ADP places him at 13.7 overall, which is pick 2.02 in a 12-team snake draft. If you want him, budget a second-round selection.
The 10th-percentile simulated season comes in at 117.2 half-PPR points. His 25th percentile is 160.0 points. Those floors are tied to scenarios where his target volume or touchdown rate compresses from recent norms.
Across the three seasons in the data, he has averaged 131.7 targets per year. Even in 2025, his lowest-scoring recent season, he still drew 141 targets. The target floor has been durable even when touchdowns have not followed.
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Beyond the numbers
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