#17 overall · LV · 173.6 projected half-PPR pts · +56.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 13.7
Ashton Jeanty — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ashton Jeanty arrived in Las Vegas as a rookie and immediately became the engine of the Raiders' offense. In 2025 — his only NFL season on record — he logged 266 rush attempts for 975 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, while also functioning as a genuine receiving weapon: 73 targets, 55 receptions, 346 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns. That receiving line is not a fluke of usage; it reflects a back who can stay on the field in every down-and-distance situation. Ten combined touchdowns in a single season, paired with a 75.3% catch rate on 73 targets, is the profile of a three-down workhorse. He fumbled twice and lost one — a number worth watching, but not alarming for a back who handled the ball at this volume. The foundation is real.
What the model projects
The model projects Jeanty at 173.6 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That output produces a Draft Value of +56.7 — meaning he projects 56.7 points above the replacement-level running back in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #17 overall and RB7 at his position, and sits in Tier 4 on the full board. Note his bye week falls in Week 13, late enough in the fantasy regular season that it will matter for playoff-bound managers.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 975 | 5 | 73 | 55 | 346 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217.6 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 266 | 975 | 5 | 73 | 55 | 346 | 5 | 2 | — | — | 219.6 |
The range of outcomes
Jeanty's season-outcome band reflects the variance that comes with any feature back whose workload is both his ceiling and his risk. A bad season (p10) lands at the low end of his simulated range, while a great season (p90) pushes well above the projection — the spread is driven primarily by touchdown variance and the durability question that follows any back absorbing 266-plus carries. His receiving role provides a meaningful floor: 55 receptions on 73 targets means he contributes even in weeks where the run game stalls. The fumble-lost in 2025 is a small but real downside flag; a back who protects the ball consistently will trend toward the upper half of his band.
How to draft him
Market ADP across two platforms places Jeanty at pick 13.7 — that is the 2nd pick of the 2nd round in a 12-team draft (2.02). If you want him, that is the window you are working with. He ranks #17 overall with a Draft Value of +56.7, and his Tier 4 placement reflects a meaningful gap from the top of the board. Plan your first-round strategy with the understanding that Jeanty will almost certainly be gone before your second-round pick arrives unless you are drafting from a late first-round slot. His Week 13 bye is worth noting on your roster construction checklist.
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Questions drafters ask
The 2025 numbers say both. He saw 73 targets, caught 55 of them (75.3% catch rate), and scored 5 receiving touchdowns alongside 5 rushing scores. That is a legitimate three-down profile, not a token passing-game role.
Market ADP has him at pick 13.7 across two platforms — the 2nd pick of Round 2 in a 12-team draft. If you are not prepared to spend a second-round pick, you will likely miss him.
His Draft Value is +56.7, meaning the model projects him 56.7 half-PPR points above the replacement-level running back in a 12-team league. He ranks RB7 at his position and #17 overall.
He fumbled twice in 2025 and lost one of them across 266 rush attempts and 55 receptions — a high-volume workload. It is a stat to monitor, but one lost fumble over that level of usage is not a disqualifying concern on its own.