#26 overall · CIN · 155.4 projected half-PPR pts · +38.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 19.4
Chase Brown — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Chase Brown has established himself as Cincinnati's featured back across two full seasons of lead-back work. In 2024 he carried the ball 229 times for 990 rushing yards, caught 54 of 65 targets for 360 receiving yards, and scored 11 total touchdowns. In 2025 he built on that: 232 rush attempts, 1,019 rushing yards, 69 receptions on 88 targets, 437 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns again. The receiving volume is real — 88 targets in 2025 is a workload that keeps him relevant even in weeks where the ground game stalls. He enters 2026 with two consecutive seasons of 229-plus carries and 65-plus targets, a profile that points to durable three-down usage.
What the model projects
Our projection has Brown at 155.4 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That output sits +38.5 points above replacement level at the running back position, placing him RB12 and #26 overall. He lands in Tier 6 on the board.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 179 | 0 | 15 | 14 | 156 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 46.5 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 990 | 7 | 65 | 54 | 360 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 1019 | 6 | 88 | 69 | 437 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 246.1 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 168.3 | 729.3 | 4.3 | 56 | 45.7 | 317.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | — | — | 173.1 |
The range of outcomes
Brown's season-to-season history shows a consistent floor built on volume. The risk side is real: he fumbled twice in both 2024 and 2025, and touchdown variance is always a factor — his 2023 season produced zero rushing touchdowns on 44 carries. The upside case rests on the receiving role continuing to expand; his target share grew from 15 in 2023 to 65 in 2024 to 88 in 2025, and if that trajectory holds, the ceiling rises meaningfully. The downside case is a regression in touchdown luck or a reduction in pass-game involvement. His bye falls in Week 6, which is early enough to manage without significant roster stress.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Brown going at pick 19.4 — that is round 2, pick 7 in a 12-team snake draft (median across 2 platforms). Our model ranks him #26 overall and RB12. Plan accordingly: if you want him, the market is pricing him in the second round, and that is the window you need to be prepared to spend a pick.
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Questions drafters ask
No. Brown finished 2024 with 990 rushing yards on 229 attempts — just short of 1,000. He did clear 1,000 in 2025, finishing with 1,019 yards on 232 attempts.
Significantly and increasingly so. His target totals read 15 (2023), 65 (2024), and 88 (2025). In 2025 he caught 69 of those 88 targets for 437 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns, making him a genuine three-down contributor.
Our projection is 155.4 half-PPR points, which grades out as RB12 and #26 overall, with a Draft Value of +38.5 points above replacement level. He sits in Tier 6 on the board.
Market ADP has him going at pick 19.4 — round 2, pick 7 in a 12-team draft. That is the window the market is currently pricing him in, so plan to spend a second-round pick if he is your target.