#16 overall · CIN · 200.1 projected half-PPR pts · +72.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 16.6
Chase Brown — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Chase Brown has back-to-back seasons of 1,000-plus rushing yards, posting 990 on 229 attempts in 2024 and 1,019 on 232 attempts in 2025. The receiving work has grown alongside the rushing load: targets climbed from 65 in 2024 to 88 in 2025, with receptions rising from 54 to 69 and receiving yards from 360 to 437. He also combined for 11 touchdowns across those two seasons, 7 rushing and 4 receiving in 2024, then 6 rushing and 5 receiving in 2025. That is a back who has held a featured role for two consecutive years and expanded his role in the passing game each time.
What the model projects
The projection is 200.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That produces a draft value of +72.9 points above replacement, placing Brown at #16 overall and RB12 in Tier 4. The projection sits modestly below his median simulated season of 211.6 points, so the point estimate and the median are close but not identical.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 44 | 179 | — | 15 | 14 | 156 | 1 | 1 | 46.5 |
| 2024 | 229 | 990 | 7 | 65 | 54 | 360 | 4 | 2 | 226.0 |
| 2025 | 232 | 1019 | 6 | 88 | 69 | 437 | 5 | 2 | 246.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 168.3 | 729.3 | 4.3 | 56 | 45.7 | 317.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 173.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the bottom 10 percent of outcomes, Brown finishes at 103.4 points, a figure that reflects how badly a featured back's season can compress. The 25th percentile is 154.9 points and the median is 211.6. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 259.9 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reach 293.1. That is a spread of nearly 190 points from p10 to p90, which tells you the outcome variance here is real. His three-year average of 168.3 rush attempts, 56 targets, and 729.3 rushing yards per season reflects how much the 2023 sample, when he had just 44 rush attempts, still weighs on the aggregate. The 2024 and 2025 lines are the more relevant signal for what a full workload looks like.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Brown's market ADP is 16.6, which works out to pick 2.05 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means you are spending a second-round pick to land the player ranked #16 overall and RB12. His bye is Week 6, early enough that it should not factor heavily into draft-day decisions. Know your target before the draft starts: at pick 2.05, the window to get him is narrow and the decision has to be made quickly.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2025 he saw 88 targets, caught 69 passes, and gained 437 receiving yards. That followed a 2024 season with 65 targets, 54 receptions, and 360 receiving yards. The trajectory is clearly upward over those two seasons.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 103.4 half-PPR points and the 25th percentile is 154.9. Those are the numbers that define the floor, and they are meaningfully below the 200.1-point projection.
His market ADP is 16.6, which translates to pick 2.05 in a 12-team draft. If you want Brown, you are committing a second-round selection.
In 2024 he carried 229 times for 990 yards. In 2025 he carried 232 times for 1,019 yards. Two straight seasons of 229-plus attempts and 990-plus rushing yards.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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