Carnell Tate — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Carnell Tate is a wide receiver on the Tennessee Titans with a bye in Week 9. The projection sits at 116.5 half-PPR points, and the simulated season band shows real upside: the 75th-percentile outcome lands at 147.0 points and the 90th percentile reaches 189.8. That upper range is the argument for taking a shot. Drafters who believe in a breakout scenario have a number to point to, and 189.8 is a meaningful ceiling for a receiver at this stage of a draft.

What the model projects

The projection is 116.5 half-PPR fantasy points. Tate ranks #105 overall and WR47 by draft value in a 12-team half-PPR format. His draft value is -11.9, placing him below replacement level at the wide receiver position in this format. He sits in Tier 9 of the overall rankings.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. At the bottom, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 42.8 points — a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile is 73.7 points, still a difficult outcome to work with. The median simulated season lands at 111.8 points, close to but slightly below the 116.5 point estimate. From there the band opens up: the 75th percentile is 147.0 and the 90th percentile is 189.8. The spread from p10 to p90 is 147.0 points, which signals high variance. Tate is a player whose season could go in very different directions, and drafters should price that volatility into their decision.

How to draft him

The market is currently drafting Tate at pick 71.3 on average, which works out to Round 6, pick 11 in a 12-team snake draft. That ADP is based on a median across two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a hard number. Our rankings place him at #105 overall and WR47. Tate fits best as a late-round flier for drafters who want to chase the upper end of his outcome band. Given the downside risk — 10% of simulated seasons end below 42.8 points — he should not be a primary receiver target. Target him as depth with upside, and make sure your earlier picks at the position give your roster a stable floor.

The projection is 116.5 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 111.8, slightly below that point estimate, and the range runs from 42.8 at the 10th percentile to 189.8 at the 90th percentile.

Tate ranks WR47 by draft value in a 12-team half-PPR format, with an overall rank of #105. His draft value of -11.9 places him below replacement level at the position.

The market ADP is 71.3, which translates to Round 6, pick 11 in a 12-team snake draft. That figure is a median across two platforms, so treat it as a general guide to when he tends to come off the board.

Quite a bit. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 42.8 points and the 90th percentile is 189.8 — a spread of 147.0 points from the bad end to the great end. The 25th percentile is 73.7 and the 75th is 147.0, so even the middle of the band covers a wide range of results.