KC Concepcion — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

KC Concepcion is a wide receiver on the Cleveland Browns with a bye in Week 11. He sits at WR46 and #104 overall, which places him in Tier 9. At that depth in a draft, most rosters are already built and drafters are hunting for upside. The band tells that story clearly: his p90 outcome lands at 190.1 half-PPR points, a number that would make him a meaningful contributor on any roster. That ceiling is the reason to keep him on your radar late.

What the model projects

The projection is 116.8 half-PPR points. His draft value is -11.9, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That is the honest baseline. The median simulated season, at 112.2 points, tracks closely with the point estimate, so the projection is not being pulled upward by outlier optimism.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 43.1 points. The 25th percentile is 74.1 points. The median sits at 112.2, the 75th percentile at 147.4, and the top-10% threshold at 190.1 points. The distance from the p10 to the p90 is nearly 147 points, which signals a player whose season can look very different depending on how things break. That variance cuts both ways, but it is exactly what a late-round pick should carry.

How to draft him

Market ADP is 115.4, which works out to pick 10.07 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him before the field does. At that stage of the draft, a negative draft value is expected territory; the question is whether the upside band justifies the selection over other options at that depth. His p90 of 190.1 points is the argument for pulling the trigger. His p10 of 43.1 is the argument for patience. Know which scenario you are drafting for before you commit the pick.

The projection is 116.8 half-PPR points, with a median simulated season of 112.2 points.

In the top 10% of simulated seasons, Concepcion finishes at or above 190.1 half-PPR points.

His draft value is -11.9, placing him below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format.

Market ADP is 115.4, which translates to pick 10.07 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you would need to spend before the field takes him.