#297 overall · HOU · 194.6 projected half-PPR pts · -72.8 Draft Value
C.J. Stroud — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
C.J. Stroud has started every season of his NFL career as a high-volume passer. Over three seasons (2023–2025), he averaged 484.7 pass attempts, 309.3 completions, and 3,625.3 passing yards per year. He has also added a consistent rushing dimension — 46.3 rush attempts and 203 rush yards per season on average — giving him a dual-threat floor that pure pocket passers lack. His best single-season mark came in 2023: 4,108 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and 167 rush yards. The volume is real, the usage is real, and for a drafter who needs a late-round QB2 with upside, those are the facts that matter.
What the model projects
The projection for Stroud in 2026 is 194.6 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -72.8, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position. He ranks QB21 at the position and #297 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. Houston's bye week is Week 8.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 499 | 319 | 4108 | 23 | 5 | 39 | 167 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 278.5 |
| 2024 | 532 | 336 | 3727 | 20 | 12 | 52 | 233 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 232.4 |
| 2025 | 423 | 273 | 3041 | 19 | 8 | 48 | 209 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 216.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 484.7 | 309.3 | 3625.3 | 20.7 | 8.3 | 46.3 | 203 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | — | — | 5.3 | — | — | 247.8 |
The range of outcomes
Stroud's three-season history shows meaningful variance. Passing yards have ranged from 3,041 (2025) to 4,108 (2023). Passing touchdowns have ranged from 19 to 23. Interceptions swung from 5 in 2023 to 12 in 2024 before settling at 8 in 2025. Fumbles lost dropped from 4 in both 2023 and 2024 to just 2 total fumbles in 2025. Rush touchdowns have been inconsistent — 3 in 2023, 0 in 2024, 1 in 2025. The three-year averages (20.7 passing TDs, 1.3 rush TDs, 8.3 interceptions) describe a QB whose floor and ceiling are both shaped heavily by turnover rate and touchdown efficiency, both of which have moved in opposite directions across his career.
How to draft him
Stroud does not have a market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, which means he is not being consistently drafted enough to register a median pick. At QB21 and #297 overall in Tier 9, he profiles as a late-flier option — a name to keep in mind only after your starting quarterback is secured. His Week 8 bye is a scheduling note worth tracking when building your roster. Given the negative draft value, he is best treated as a depth add rather than a planned starter.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 194.6 half-PPR points and a draft value of -72.8 place him below replacement level at the position — QB21 and #297 overall in Tier 9. He profiles as a depth or streaming option, not a planned starter.
Over three seasons (2023–2025), Stroud averaged 484.7 pass attempts, 309.3 completions, and 3,625.3 passing yards per year. His peak was 2023: 499 attempts, 319 completions, and 4,108 yards.
Interceptions went 5 (2023), 12 (2024), then 8 (2025). Fumbles lost were 4 in both 2023 and 2024, then he had just 2 total fumbles in 2025. The three-year average is 8.3 interceptions per season.
Yes — he has averaged 46.3 rush attempts and 203 rush yards per season over three years. Rush touchdowns have been inconsistent: 3 in 2023, 0 in 2024, and 1 in 2025, for a three-year average of 1.3 per season.