C.J. Stroud — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

C.J. Stroud has been a volume passer from the moment he entered the league. Over three seasons he has averaged 484.7 pass attempts, 309.3 completions, and 3,625.3 passing yards per year. He has also added a quiet rushing floor, averaging 46.3 rush attempts and 203 rush yards per season across that same stretch. His 2023 debut stands as his statistical high-water mark: 4,108 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and 167 rush yards on 39 carries. The rushing contribution has grown each year since, reaching 233 yards on 52 attempts in 2024 and 209 yards on 48 attempts in 2025. For a drafter who needs a late-round quarterback with a real workload behind him, the three-year track record is the argument.

What the model projects

The projection is 208.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Stroud at QB23 and #210 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -50.5, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 208.4 sits above the median simulated season of 186.3, so the distribution carries a modest upward skew, but the headline number is what it is: a below-replacement projection at the position.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of outcomes land at or below 68.7 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 127.3. The median season comes in at 186.3 points. The optimistic half of the band is considerably more generous: the 75th percentile reaches 263.1 points and the top 10 percent of outcomes finish at or above 329.3. That is a spread of roughly 260 points between the p10 and p90, which reflects genuine season-to-season variance in his profile. His interception totals have fluctuated from 5 in 2023 to 12 in 2024 and back to 8 in 2025, and his passing yardage has declined each year from that 2023 peak. Both of those trends feed the width of the band. The upside case is real; so is the floor.

How to draft him

Market ADP for Stroud is 182.0, which works out to pick 16.02 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round pick in most snake drafts. The model has him at #210 overall and QB23. His bye is Week 8, worth noting when building a roster around him. Given the negative draft value, the practical use case is as a late-round streamer or handcuff quarterback rather than a primary starter. If you are carrying two quarterbacks, the cost is low enough that the upside band, which reaches 329.3 points at the 90th percentile, gives him a plausible role.

Over three seasons (2023-2025) he has averaged 484.7 pass attempts, 309.3 completions, and 3,625.3 passing yards per year. His peak was 2023: 499 attempts, 319 completions, and 4,108 yards.

The projection is 208.4 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks QB23 and #210 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -50.5, placing him below replacement level at the position.

The simulated season band runs from 68.7 points at the 10th percentile to 329.3 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 186.3 points. The top quarter of outcomes (p75 and above) start at 263.1 points, so the upside is meaningful even if the floor is low.

Market ADP is 182.0, which translates to pick 16.02 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round commitment with a Week 8 bye to plan around.