Cade Otton — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Cade Otton has been one of the more consistent volume accumulators at tight end over the past three seasons. His target share has grown each year he has a full slate of games: 67 targets in 2023, 87 in 2024, and 81 in 2025. His reception totals have held steady at 59 in each of the last two seasons, and his receiving yardage has climbed from 455 in 2023 to 600 in 2024 and 572 in 2025. Over the three-year aggregate, he averages 78.3 targets, 55 receptions, and 542.3 receiving yards per season. That is a reliable floor of involvement in the Tampa Bay passing game, and it is the foundation of any case for rostering him.

What the model projects

The projection is 77.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That places Otton at TE24 and #192 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -43.3, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He carries a bye in Week 10.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 29.2 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 52.5. The median simulated season lands at 82.4 points, a touch above the 77.2 point estimate. The optimistic half of the band opens up considerably: the 75th percentile reaches 105.8 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 136.0. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes spans more than 100 points, which reflects meaningful season-to-season variance. His three-year touchdown history illustrates that variance directly: four scores in 2023, four in 2024, and just one in 2025. Touchdown volume is the clearest lever separating the high and low ends of his range.

How to draft him

Otton is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. His rank of #192 overall and TE24 put him well outside the tiers where tight ends carry positive surplus value. In a standard 12-team snake draft he is a late-round or waiver-wire consideration, useful primarily as a streaming option or a handcuff for managers who want a high-volume floor at the position. His negative draft value means the expectation, at baseline, is that a replacement-level tight end would match or exceed his production. Draft him only if you have already secured your primary tight end and want a high-target-volume backup with a realistic path to the 100-point range if touchdowns bounce his way.

His projection of 77.2 points and a draft value of -43.3 place him below replacement level at TE24 and #192 overall in Tier 9. He is a viable streaming option given his consistent target volume, averaging 78.3 targets per season over the last three years, but the baseline projection does not clear the replacement bar in a 12-team format.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 136.0 points, and the 75th percentile is 105.8. His 2023 and 2024 seasons each produced four receiving touchdowns, so the upside is real if scoring volume returns. The 2025 season produced just one touchdown on 81 targets and 59 receptions, which shows how much the outcome depends on the red-zone work he receives.

Very consistent. He has posted 67, 87, and 81 targets across the last three seasons, with a three-year average of 78.3. Receptions have been 47, 59, and 59. The volume floor is one of the more stable elements of his profile.

There is no market ADP available for Otton, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough across public drafts to establish one. At #192 overall and TE24, he is a late-draft or post-draft pickup. Plan to target him only after your primary tight end is secured.