#163 overall · TB · 83.9 projected half-PPR pts · -28.1 Draft Value
Cade Otton — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Cade Otton has been a consistent presence in Tampa Bay's passing game across three seasons. He averaged 78.3 targets, 55 receptions, and 542.3 receiving yards per year from 2023 through 2025 — a volume floor that is real and repeatable. His 2024 season was his best, with 87 targets, 59 catches, and 600 yards. He matched that reception total in 2025 on 81 targets. The target share has been durable, and durability at tight end has value. If you need a streaming option or a late-round handcuff at the position, Otton's track record of seeing the ball is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 83.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value sits at -28.1, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position. He ranks TE21 and #163 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. Tampa Bay's bye is Week 10.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 47 | 455 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 93.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 87 | 59 | 600 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 111.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 59 | 572 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 92.7 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | -1.3 | — | 78.3 | 55 | 542.3 | 3 | 0.7 | — | — | 99.6 |
The range of outcomes
Otton's three-year average of 3 receiving touchdowns per season is the primary swing variable. In 2023 and 2024 he scored 4 times each; in 2025 that number dropped to 1. The difference between a 4-touchdown season and a 1-touchdown season is roughly 18 points in half-PPR — meaningful at a position where scoring drives value. His receiving yardage has been stable (455, 600, 572 over the three years), so the upside and downside cases hinge almost entirely on whether the touchdowns return to the 2023–2024 range or stay near the 2025 floor.
How to draft him
Otton is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means he is available as a free agent in most drafts — a late add or waiver-wire target rather than a pick you need to budget for. At TE21 and #163 overall with a negative draft value, he belongs at the back end of your roster if you carry him at all. Draft your starter at tight end first; Otton is a depth piece or a streaming fallback, not a foundational selection.
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Questions drafters ask
He has seen 67, 87, and 81 targets in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, for a three-year average of 78.3 targets per season — a consistent workload for a tight end.
The projection is 83.9 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks TE21 and #163 overall with a draft value of -28.1, placing him in Tier 9.
His receiving yards (572) and receptions (59) were in line with prior seasons, but his receiving touchdowns fell to 1 after back-to-back seasons of 4. The touchdown drop is the primary driver of any production decline.
He does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is available as a free agent or late waiver addition in most 2026 drafts.