#162 overall · LAC · 84.2 projected half-PPR pts · -27.8 Draft Value
David Njoku — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Njoku arrives in Los Angeles with a three-year track record of genuine target volume. From 2023 through 2025 he averaged 89.3 targets and 59.3 receptions per season, and he has posted at least 4 receiving touchdowns in each of those three years. His 2023 peak — 123 targets, 81 catches, 882 yards, 6 touchdowns — shows what the ceiling looks like when he is the focal point of a passing game. The touchdown consistency is real: five scores in 2024, four in 2025, six in 2023. For a drafter hunting late-round TE depth, that floor matters.
What the model projects
The projection is 84.2 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value sits at -27.8, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position. He ranks TE20 and #162 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. His bye week is 7.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 81 | 882 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 160.7 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 64 | 505 | 5 | — | 0 | 0 | 112.5 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 33 | 293 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 69.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 89.3 | 59.3 | 560 | 5 | 0.7 | — | — | 115.7 |
The range of outcomes
The three most recent seasons tell the story of the band. In 2023 he produced 882 receiving yards on 123 targets. In 2024 that fell to 505 yards on 97 targets. In 2025 it contracted further to 293 yards on 48 targets. The three-year average settles at 560 receiving yards and 89.3 targets per season, but the year-to-year variance is wide. A season closer to his 2023 line would push him well above the 84.2-point projection; a repeat of 2025's 48-target workload would fall well short of it. Touchdown rate has been the stabilizing force — five touchdowns per season on average — but volume swings remain the dominant risk.
How to draft him
Njoku is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick-cost benchmark to anchor against. At TE20 and #162 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -27.8, he projects below replacement level. He belongs on the back end of draft boards as a speculative add — a drafter who believes his target share rebounds toward his 2023 or 2024 levels has a reasonable argument, but the projection as it stands does not support spending meaningful draft capital on him. His bye in Week 7 is worth noting for roster-management purposes.
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Questions drafters ask
He saw 123 targets in 2023, 97 in 2024, and 48 in 2025 — a three-year average of 89.3 targets per season, though the trend has been sharply downward.
His projection of 84.2 half-PPR points comes with a draft value of -27.8, meaning he projects below replacement level at tight end. He ranks TE20 and #162 overall in Tier 9. He is not a player the model endorses spending meaningful draft capital on at those numbers.
He has scored at least 4 receiving touchdowns in each of the last three seasons — 6 in 2023, 5 in 2024, and 4 in 2025 — for a three-year average of 5 per season. That consistency is the strongest element of his profile.
He does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. There is no pick-cost benchmark available.