#190 overall · LAC · 77.9 projected half-PPR pts · -42.6 Draft Value
David Njoku — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The three-year averages tell the story plainly: 89.3 targets, 59.3 receptions, 560 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2023 peak, 123 targets, 81 receptions, 882 yards, and 6 touchdowns, shows what the ceiling looks like when volume is there. Njoku has demonstrated he can function as a genuine focal point in a passing game, and that kind of target share at tight end is not trivial. The touchdown floor has held at 4 or better across each of the last three seasons, which gives him a consistent scoring baseline even in leaner volume years.
What the model projects
The projection is 77.9 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 83.3 points, a touch above the point estimate. Njoku sits at TE23 and #190 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -42.6, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 123 | 81 | 882 | 6 | 2 | 160.7 |
| 2024 | 97 | 64 | 505 | 5 | — | 112.5 |
| 2025 | 48 | 33 | 293 | 4 | — | 69.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 89.3 | 59.3 | 560 | 5 | 0.7 | 115.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. A bottom-10% season lands at 29.7 points, a number that reflects how little floor there is if volume dries up entirely. The 25th percentile comes in at 53.2 points, still a thin return. The median is 83.3 points, and the 75th percentile reaches 106.6. A top-10% season projects to 136.7 points, which is the number that keeps him relevant in deep leagues. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is over 107 points, so the variance here is real and drafters should price it accordingly. His 2025 line, 48 targets, 33 receptions, 293 yards, and 4 touchdowns, anchors the lower end of what this range is built around.
(bottom 10%)
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our projection
How to draft him
Njoku is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. At TE23 and #190 overall in Tier 9, he projects below replacement level, and the wide outcome band means the upside is real but far from guaranteed. He is a late-round or waiver-wire consideration in 12-team half-PPR leagues, best suited as a handcuff or streaming option rather than a planned starter. His bye falls in Week 7, worth noting if you are building around him in a deeper format.
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Questions drafters ask
At TE23 and #190 overall with a draft value of -42.6, the projection puts him below replacement level at the position. He has no market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough to have one. He is a depth or streaming option, not a planned starter.
Targets have declined each of the last three seasons: 123 in 2023, 97 in 2024, and 48 in 2025. The three-year average is 89.3, pulled up significantly by the 2023 season. The 2025 line is the most recent data point and sits well below that average.
The 90th-percentile simulated season projects to 136.7 half-PPR points. His 2023 season, 882 yards, 81 receptions, and 6 touchdowns on 123 targets, is the historical reference point for what a high-end outcome looks like.
The band runs from 29.7 points at the 10th percentile to 136.7 at the 90th percentile, a spread of over 107 points. The 2025 stat line, 48 targets, 33 receptions, 293 yards, and 4 touchdowns, illustrates what the lower end of that range looks like in practice.
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Beyond the numbers
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