#292 overall · ARI · 49.8 projected half-PPR pts · -77.3 Draft Value
Zonovan Knight — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Zonovan Knight's 2025 season is the reason his name appears on any roster consideration list. He logged 82 rush attempts for 269 yards and added 22 receptions on 31 targets for 160 receiving yards, finishing with 4 rushing touchdowns and 1 receiving touchdown. That receiving role is the most interesting piece: 31 targets in a season signals genuine involvement in the passing game, not just a change-of-pace role. His 2023 line was minimal by comparison, 3 rush attempts and 1 reception, so the 2025 workload represents a meaningful step up in usage. Now with Arizona, he carries that momentum into a new situation.
What the model projects
The projection for Knight is 49.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -77.3, placing him #292 overall and RB64 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player who projects below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages tell a similar story: 42.5 rush attempts, 16 targets, 141 rush yards, 84 receiving yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, and 0.5 receiving touchdowns per season across the 2023-2025 window. The 2025 season pulled those averages up considerably from where they sat after 2023, but the aggregate still reflects a player with limited volume in most seasons.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | 13 | — | 1 | 1 | 8 | — | — | 2.6 |
| 2025 | 82 | 269 | 4 | 31 | 22 | 160 | 1 | 1 | 81.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 42.5 | 141 | 2 | 16 | 11.5 | 84 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band on Knight is wide. The p10 sits at 0.8 points, meaning in the worst 10% of simulated seasons he contributes almost nothing. The p25 is 11.9 points and the median simulated season lands at 33.7 points. The upside exists: the p75 is 74.4 points and the p90 reaches 111.6 points. That spread from 0.8 to 111.6 is a signal of high variance. A season closer to his 2025 output pushes him toward the top of that band; a season closer to his 2023 output pushes him toward the floor. His bye falls in Week 14, which is a relevant roster-management note for anyone who does roster him deep in a draft.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Knight does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. At RB64 and #292 overall in Tier 9, he is a depth option at best in a 12-team half-PPR league. He projects below replacement level, so the case for rostering him rests entirely on the upside tail of that outcome band and the possibility that his 2025 usage carries over in Arizona. In most draft formats, he is a late-round or waiver-wire name rather than a pick you plan around.
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Questions drafters ask
The model has him at RB64 and #292 overall in Tier 9 with a projected 49.8 points and a draft value of -77.3, which is below replacement level. He is a depth or handcuff consideration, not a player to target with a meaningful pick.
In 2025 he posted 82 rush attempts, 269 rush yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 22 receptions on 31 targets, 160 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown. His 2023 season was minimal: 3 rush attempts and 1 reception. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 come out to 42.5 rush attempts, 16 targets, 141 rush yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns per season.
The p90 of his outcome band is 111.6 half-PPR points, meaning roughly 10% of simulated seasons project at or above that total. The p75 is 74.4 points. Those are the numbers that define his ceiling in this projection framework.
The p10 of his outcome band is 0.8 points and the p25 is 11.9 points. In the bottom quarter of simulated seasons, he contributes almost nothing to a fantasy roster.
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Beyond the numbers
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