#202 overall · LAC · 80.4 projected half-PPR pts · -48.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 197.1
Tre' Harris — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tre' Harris is a 2026 LAC receiver with a single season of NFL production on record: 43 targets, 30 receptions, 324 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown in 2025. That is a thin resume, and there is no multi-year track record to lean on — the three-year aggregate is identical to the single-season line, meaning 2025 was his entire NFL footprint heading into this draft cycle. The case for drafting him is almost entirely forward-looking. He is on a roster, he has demonstrated he can get on the field and produce at the NFL level, and late-round picks carry low opportunity cost. For a drafter willing to hold a speculative WR spot, Harris represents a known quantity at a position where most late-round options are unknowns.
What the model projects
The projection is 80.4 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -48.3, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #202 overall and WR77. He is in Tier 9. His bye week is 7.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 43 | 30 | 324 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 54.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 43 | 30 | 324 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 54.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is consistent with a player whose NFL sample is limited. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 11.6 points — essentially a non-factor. The median simulated season is 60.6 points, notably below the 80.4 point projection. The 75th percentile reaches 97.0 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at 149.4 points. That upper tail is real: in a strong outcome Harris can approach a useful fantasy total. The distance between the p10 and p90 — 11.6 to 149.4 — reflects how much uncertainty surrounds a player with one season of data. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the projection; the upside is there but it requires things to break right.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Harris at pick 197.1 on average, which works out to round 17, pick 5 in a 12-team draft (based on a median across two platforms). He ranks #202 overall by draft value. At that draft slot, he is a late-round flier. If you want him, round 17 is when you would need to spend the pick. Given the projection sits below replacement level and the median simulated season is 60.6 points, he is best treated as a depth stash rather than a meaningful contributor in your starting lineup. His value is almost entirely in the upside tail — the 149.4-point p90 — and that is the only realistic reason to roster him.
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Questions drafters ask
His entire NFL record through 2025 is 43 targets, 30 receptions, 324 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown, all from the 2025 season. The three-year aggregate is identical, so 2025 is the only season on record.
The projection is 80.4 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -48.3, placing him below replacement level at wide receiver. He ranks #202 overall and WR77 in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The p90 simulated season — the top 10% of outcomes — lands at 149.4 half-PPR points. The p75 is 97.0 points. The median simulated season is 60.6 points, so strong outcomes require meaningful improvement over the typical projection.
The market ADP is 197.1, which translates to round 17, pick 5 in a 12-team draft. That median is drawn from two platforms. If you want him on your roster, round 17 is the window.
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Beyond the numbers
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