#151 overall · GB · 99.0 projected half-PPR pts · -29.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 112.7
Matthew Golden — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Matthew Golden is a Green Bay wide receiver with a bye in Week 11. His 2025 season produced 29 receptions on 44 targets for 361 receiving yards, plus 10 rush attempts for 49 yards. That rushing contribution shows he is used in more than one way in the offense, and his target total gives him a foothold in the passing game. For a drafter willing to roster a Tier 9 option late, the upside band is the argument: a strong season lands him at 170.6 half-PPR points, which is a meaningful return on a late pick.
What the model projects
The projection is 99.0 half-PPR points. Golden sits at #151 overall and WR60, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -29.7, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 86.4 points, which is below the 99.0 point estimate, indicating the distribution is skewed toward upside rather than centered on the headline number.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 44 | 29 | 361 | 10 | 49 | 55.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 44 | 29 | 361 | 10 | 49 | 55.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 27.1 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile is 52.0 points, still a bench-level result. The median sits at 86.4 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 122.4 points and the 90th percentile hits 170.6 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 143.5 points, which reflects a player whose season-to-season variance is substantial. The floor is real, and so is the ceiling.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 112.7, which works out to pick 10.05 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model ranks him #151 overall and WR60. At pick 10.05, a drafter is spending a 10th-round selection to land him. Given his -29.7 draft value and Tier 9 placement, he profiles as a late-round flier whose value depends on the high end of his outcome band materializing. Roster him as a depth piece with upside, not as a weekly starter.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 29 passes on 44 targets for 361 receiving yards and added 10 rush attempts for 49 rushing yards. Those are his only recorded seasons in the three-year aggregate, meaning 2025 is the entirety of his available history.
The projection is 99.0 half-PPR points. The median simulated season is 86.4 points, so the point estimate sits above the median, reflecting a distribution that skews toward upside outcomes.
The 90th-percentile outcome is 170.6 half-PPR points, meaning roughly 1 in 10 simulated seasons reaches that level or higher. The 75th percentile is 122.4 points.
Market ADP is 112.7, which translates to pick 10.05 in a 12-team draft. That figure is a median drawn from two platforms, so expect to spend a 10th-round pick if you want to secure him.
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Beyond the numbers
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