#51 overall · IND · 126.4 projected half-PPR pts · +14.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 61.1
Tyler Warren — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tyler Warren arrived in Indianapolis and immediately became the focal point of the Colts' passing game. In 2025, he commanded 112 targets and turned them into 76 receptions for 817 receiving yards — a target share that signals genuine scheme-level trust from the coaching staff. He also contributed on the ground with 6 rush attempts for 8 yards and a rushing touchdown, underscoring his versatility as a weapon beyond traditional tight end routes. The 3-year aggregate stats are identical to his 2025 line, which tells you everything: Warren was essentially a non-factor before last season, meaning this production is a true breakout, not a slow accumulation. He enters 2026 as an established starter with a proven role, a positive draft value of +14.5, and a position rank of TE3.
What the model projects
The model projects Warren at 126.4 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That projection places him #51 overall and TE3 at his position, landing him in Tier 7 on the full board. His draft value of +14.5 means he projects meaningfully above the replacement-level baseline for tight ends in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is built on a foundation of real, recent production — 112 targets and 76 catches in 2025 — and reflects a player who has already demonstrated he can sustain a high-volume role in this offense.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 112 | 76 | 817 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 150.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 1 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 8 | 1 | 112 | 76 | 817 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 150.5 |
The range of outcomes
Warren's profile carries the variance you'd expect from a tight end whose entire NFL résumé is one breakout season. The upside case is straightforward: if the Colts lean on him as heavily as they did in 2025 — or more so — and his touchdown rate normalizes upward from 4 receiving scores, he has a clear path to outperforming the projection. The downside case centers on touchdown regression and target competition. He scored 4 receiving touchdowns on 112 targets in 2025, a modest rate that could easily stay flat or dip. Any shift in offensive scheme, quarterback play, or the emergence of another pass-catcher in Indianapolis would compress his floor. His bye falls in Week 13, a late-season timing that requires roster management but is not a draft-day dealbreaker.
How to draft him
Warren's market ADP sits at 61.1, which translates to the 6th round, 1st pick in a 12-team draft (6.01) — a median drawn from 2 platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a hard consensus. Our model has him at #51 overall and TE3. Plan to spend a pick in that sixth-round neighborhood if you want him on your roster. At the tight end position, TE3 production is worth targeting with intention rather than hoping he falls. If you're building your roster with a plan to secure a reliable, high-volume tight end, Warren is the player you're targeting in that range.
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Questions drafters ask
Warren posted 112 targets, 76 receptions, 817 receiving yards, 4 receiving touchdowns, and 1 rushing touchdown in 2025. His 3-year aggregate stats are identical, confirming 2025 was his first meaningful NFL season.
He ranks TE3 at his position and #51 overall, with a draft value of +14.5 — meaning he projects 14.5 points above the replacement-level tight end baseline in a 12-team half-PPR format.
His market ADP is 61.1, which works out to pick 6.01 in a 12-team draft. That median is drawn from 2 platforms, so expect to spend a pick in the sixth round if you want him on your team.
Warren's bye is Week 13, which falls late in the fantasy regular season. It requires roster planning but is a manageable scheduling note rather than a reason to avoid him.