#63 overall · IND · 128.3 projected half-PPR pts · +7.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 62.0
Tyler Warren — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tyler Warren's 2025 season is the entire three-year aggregate. Every receiving yard, every reception, every target in the 2023-2025 window belongs to that one campaign: 112 targets, 76 receptions, 817 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns. That kind of target volume as a tight end is a real foundation. He also added 6 rush attempts, 8 rush yards, and a rushing touchdown, giving him a small but genuine multi-dimensional footprint. The production is concentrated, not diluted across years, which means the 2025 season is the clearest possible signal of what he can do when fully deployed.
What the model projects
The projection is 128.3 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That puts Warren at TE5 by draft value and #63 overall, sitting in Tier 8. His draft value is +7.8 points above replacement level at the tight end position, meaning the model sees him as a net positive over what a freely available TE would provide. His bye week is Week 13.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 112 | 76 | 817 | 4 | 1 | 150.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 112 | 76 | 817 | 4 | 1 | 150.5 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for a tight end with a single season of meaningful data. The floor is real: 10% of simulated seasons land at or below 73.1 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 103.4. The median simulated season comes in at 138.8 points, a few ticks above the 128.3 point estimate. The upside is meaningful: 75th-percentile outcomes reach 161.3 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at 188.7. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 115.6 points, so drafters are taking on real variance here. A strong season looks like a weekly starter; a weak one looks like a streamer.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Warren's market ADP is 62.0, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 6.02 in a 12-team snake draft. His overall rank is #63 overall, so the market and the model are closely aligned on where he sits. Plan to spend a sixth-round pick if you want him. At the tight end position he is TE5, so if the top four tight ends are gone by the time pick 6.02 arrives, Warren is a natural target at that slot. His Week 13 bye is late enough that it rarely disrupts playoff runs, which is a quiet scheduling note worth keeping in mind.
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Questions drafters ask
Warren posted 112 targets, 76 receptions, 817 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns in 2025. He also carried the ball 6 times for 8 yards and a rushing touchdown. Notably, his three-year aggregate stats are identical to his 2025 line, meaning 2025 is the only season in that window where he produced meaningful numbers.
His market ADP is 62.0, which works out to pick 6.02 in a 12-team snake draft. Budget a sixth-round pick if you want to secure him.
In simulated seasons, the bottom 10% finish at or below 73.1 half-PPR points and the top 10% finish at or above 188.7. The median simulated season lands at 138.8 points. The range is wide, so outcomes vary significantly depending on how the season unfolds.
He projects at 128.3 half-PPR points with a +7.8 draft value above replacement level, ranking TE5 and #63 overall in Tier 8. That profile supports using him as a starting tight end, though the wide outcome band means drafters should be prepared for variance in either direction.
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Beyond the numbers
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