Dustin Hopkins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Dustin Hopkins has a legitimate long-range track record. In 2023 he connected on 10 field goals from 40-49 yards and 8 from 50-plus, finishing 33-of-36 on field goal attempts with only 3 misses. That is a strong accuracy profile, and the long-distance volume in particular is the kind of number that produces kicker upside in half-PPR formats. Over the three-year aggregate, he averages 25.5 made field goals and 20.5 extra points per season across 31.5 attempts, which is a workable baseline for a kicker in a functional offense.

What the model projects

The projection is 77.8 half-PPR fantasy points. Hopkins ranks K36 at #367 overall and sits in Tier 9. His draft value is -95.3, which places him below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The p10 and p25 both sit at 0.0 points, meaning at least a quarter of simulated seasons produce essentially nothing. The median outcome (p50) is 11.8 points. The p75 reaches 59.5 and the p90 climbs to 145.5. That 145.5 ceiling is real, but the floor is equally real: the distribution is heavily weighted toward low-end outcomes, with the upside concentrated in a narrow slice of the best-case scenarios. Drafters should treat the 0.0 floor as a genuine possibility, not a formality.

How to draft him

Hopkins is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, which tells you everything about where he stands in the current draft landscape. At K36 and #367 overall with a negative draft value, he is a late-roster-spot consideration at best, and only in leagues where kicker scoring is significant enough to reward the long-range accuracy he has shown. If you are targeting a kicker, Hopkins is a name to know, but the band makes clear that the downside scenarios are not outliers. Roster accordingly.

He sits at K36 and #367 overall with a draft value of -95.3, which is below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is 77.8 points, but the median simulated season is only 11.8 points and the p10 and p25 both land at 0.0. The upside exists at the p90 (145.5 points), but the distribution is heavily skewed toward low outcomes.

In 2023 Hopkins went 33-of-36 on field goal attempts with 3 misses, including 10 makes from 40-49 yards and 8 from 50-plus. In 2024 he went 18-of-27 with 8 misses, including 5 from 40-49 and 4 from 50-plus. The three-year average is 25.5 made field goals and 5.5 misses per season across 31.5 attempts.

The p90 of the simulated season band is 145.5 half-PPR points, representing the top 10% of projected outcomes. The p75 is 59.5 points. Those are the upper end of the distribution; the median outcome is 11.8 points.

Hopkins does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is an undrafted or very late pick in most formats, reflecting his K36 position rank and below-replacement-level draft value.