#96 overall · GB · 111.1 projected half-PPR pts · -8.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 82.2
Tucker Kraft — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tucker Kraft has shown steady growth across three seasons in Green Bay. He caught 31 passes for 355 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2023, then took a clear step forward in 2024 with 50 receptions, 707 yards, and 7 touchdowns on 70 targets. The 2025 season brought 32 catches, 489 yards, and 6 touchdowns on 44 targets. The touchdown rate has held up across both of his most recent seasons, and the three-year averages tell a consistent story: 51.3 targets, 37.7 receptions, 517 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per season. For a tight end, that touchdown floor is a real asset in half-PPR formats.
What the model projects
The projection for Kraft is 111.1 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draft value sits at -8.8, placing him #96 overall and TE9 in Tier 9. The projection is a point estimate; the median simulated season lands at 121.6 points, which is above the headline figure. Both numbers are worth keeping in mind as you evaluate him.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 40 | 31 | 355 | 2 | — | 63.0 |
| 2024 | 70 | 50 | 707 | 7 | 1 | 136.3 |
| 2025 | 44 | 32 | 489 | 6 | — | 101.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 51.3 | 37.7 | 517 | 5 | 0.3 | 100.9 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 56.0 points, a figure that reflects how quickly a tight end's value can evaporate without touchdowns or target volume. The 25th percentile is 86.3 points and the median is 121.6. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 144.0 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 171.4. That upper band is meaningful: a season near 171 points would represent genuine TE1 production. The spread from p10 to p90 is 115.4 points, so the range of realistic outcomes here is genuinely broad. Kraft's bye is Week 11.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP for Kraft is 82.2, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 7.10 in a 12-team draft. His model rank is #96 overall and TE9. If you want him, Round 7 is when you need to spend the pick. Given the width of his outcome band, the decision comes down to how much TE upside you want to carry into the season and how your roster looks at that point in the draft.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 51.3 targets per season over the 2023-2025 stretch. The individual season totals were 40 in 2023, 70 in 2024, and 44 in 2025.
He caught 7 receiving touchdowns in 2024 and 6 in 2025, with 2 in 2023. The three-year average is 5 receiving touchdowns per season. The model projects 111.1 points, and the median simulated season is 121.6, so the projection does not assume a repeat of the peak 2024 pace.
Market ADP is 82.2 across two platforms, which works out to pick 7.10 in a 12-team snake draft. Round 7 is the window where you would need to commit a pick to land him.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 56.0 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile is 86.3. Those are below-replacement outcomes for a TE9 with a -8.8 draft value, so the floor is real. The upside at the 90th percentile is 171.4 points, which is the other side of that wide band.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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