#83 overall · ARI · 120.9 projected half-PPR pts · -1.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 80.8
Michael Wilson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Wilson's 2025 season was a clear step forward. He turned 126 targets into 78 receptions for 1,006 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns — the first 1,000-yard campaign of his career. That target volume represented a meaningful jump from the 71 he saw in 2024 and the 58 in 2023, and it established him as a genuine focal point in Arizona's passing game. His three-year averages — 85 targets, 54.3 receptions, 706.3 receiving yards, and 4.7 receiving touchdowns per season — show a player who has been building toward this role, not one who stumbled into it. The 2025 breakout gives him a credible floor heading into 2026.
What the model projects
The model projects Wilson at 120.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value sits at -1.6, placing him just below replacement level at the position. That lands him at WR41 and #83 overall, in Tier 9 on the board. The projection reflects a player whose 2025 production was real but whose value-over-replacement margin is thin at current expectations. He carries a Week 14 bye.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 38 | 565 | 3 | — | 0 | 0 | 93.5 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 71 | 47 | 548 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 101.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 78 | 1006 | 7 | — | 0 | 0 | 181.6 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | 2.3 | — | 85 | 54.3 | 706.3 | 4.7 | 0.3 | — | — | 126.2 |
The range of outcomes
Wilson's season-to-season trajectory tells the story of his variance. He posted 565 receiving yards in 2023, 548 in 2024, then vaulted to 1,006 in 2025 — a range that illustrates how quickly his role can shift. On the upside, a repeat of that target share and efficiency produces another 1,000-yard, multi-touchdown season. On the downside, a regression in target volume — as happened between his first two seasons — would push him back toward the low-500s in yards and a much thinner fantasy contribution. His three-year average of 85 targets per season is the honest middle ground: useful, but not dominant.
How to draft him
Wilson's market ADP is 80.8, which works out to pick 7.09 in a 12-team snake draft (median across two platforms). Our model has him at #83 overall and WR41. If you want him, Round 7 is when you'll need to spend the pick. At that stage of the draft, he profiles as a depth receiver with a recent breakout season on his résumé — a reasonable target for a WR4/5 slot on your roster if you've secured your core at the position in earlier rounds.
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Questions drafters ask
The underlying numbers support some optimism. His targets jumped from 71 in 2024 to 126 in 2025, and he converted those into 78 receptions, 1,006 yards, and 7 touchdowns. His first two seasons (565 yards in 2023, 548 in 2024) show he can regress if the target share shrinks, so the 2025 volume is the key variable to watch — but the breakout was built on a genuine increase in usage, not just efficiency luck.
The projection is 120.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts him at WR41 and #83 overall, with a draft value of -1.6 — just a hair below replacement level at the position, in Tier 9 on the board.
His market ADP is 80.8, which translates to pick 7.09 in a 12-team draft. If you want Wilson on your roster, Round 7 is the window — waiting longer risks losing him to another team.
His 2023 and 2024 seasons — 565 and 548 receiving yards, respectively — are the downside template. If his target share contracts from the 126 he saw in 2025 back toward the 58–71 range of his first two years, his fantasy contribution drops sharply. His three-year average of 85 targets per season is the more conservative baseline to plan around.