#78 overall · ARI · 126.6 projected half-PPR pts · -2.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 82.1
Michael Wilson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Wilson's 2025 season is the foundation of the case. He posted 1,006 receiving yards, 78 receptions, 126 targets, and 7 touchdowns — a clear step up from his first two NFL seasons. His target share climbed from 58 in 2023 to 71 in 2024 to 126 in 2025, a consistent upward trajectory that now puts him firmly in the conversation as a legitimate volume receiver in Arizona. The three-year averages back the trend: 85 targets, 54.3 receptions, 706.3 receiving yards, and 4.7 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2025 breakout is the most recent data point, and it carries the most weight.
What the model projects
The projection for Wilson is 126.6 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -2.2, placing him #78 overall and WR34 in Tier 9. The projection lands just above his median simulated season of 126.3 points, which means the point estimate and the typical simulated outcome are closely aligned.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 58 | 38 | 565 | 3 | — | — | — | 93.5 |
| 2024 | 71 | 47 | 548 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 101.0 |
| 2025 | 126 | 78 | 1006 | 7 | — | — | — | 181.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 85 | 54.3 | 706.3 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 126.2 |
The range of outcomes
Wilson's outcome band is wide. A bad season — bottom 10% of simulated outcomes — lands at 51.8 points. A typical season comes in at 126.3. A strong season at the 75th percentile reaches 161.2 points, and a top-10% outcome pushes to 201.0 points. That 149-point spread between p10 and p90 reflects real variance. The floor is soft enough to matter, but the ceiling at 201.0 points is a meaningful upside case for a player being drafted this late. His bye week falls in Week 14.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Wilson's market ADP is 82.1, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 7.10 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the seventh round, tenth pick. At that draft slot, you are spending a mid-to-late pick on a player who broke out in 2025 and now carries a projection of 126.6 points. His draft value is slightly negative at -2.2, meaning the projection sits just below replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He fits best as a depth receiver or a flex option with upside, not as a foundational piece of a roster.
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Questions drafters ask
The target volume supports it. Wilson went from 58 targets in 2023 to 71 in 2024 to 126 in 2025, with receptions and yardage climbing each year. The 2025 line of 1,006 yards, 78 catches, and 7 touchdowns is the most recent and most complete season on record for him.
The projection is 126.6 half-PPR points. The 90th-percentile simulated outcome — a top-10% season — reaches 201.0 points. That is the upside case the numbers support.
His market ADP is 82.1, which works out to pick 7.10 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, that is roughly when you need to spend the pick.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 51.8 half-PPR points. That is the bad-season floor the model's outcome band produces — a real risk for a player with a draft value of -2.2.
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Beyond the numbers
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