#82 overall · KC · 110.6 projected half-PPR pts · -1.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 114.4
Travis Kelce — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kelce has posted 93, 97, and 76 receptions over the past three seasons, averaging 88.7 catches, 886 receiving yards, and 4.3 receiving touchdowns per year across that span. His target volume has been durable — 121 in 2023, rising to 133 in 2024, then settling at 108 in 2025. The floor is real: even in his quietest recent season he caught 76 balls for 851 yards and 5 touchdowns. That kind of consistent production from the tight end position, anchored by a long-standing connection with one of the league's premier quarterbacks, is the core of the case.
What the model projects
The model projects Kelce for 110.6 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That projection lands him at #82 overall and TE7, sitting in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value of -1.4 means he projects just below replacement level at the tight end position — a narrow margin, but one that matters when allocating picks. The projection reflects a player whose recent statistical trend — declining yards and receptions from 2023 to 2025, even as targets remained elevated — is baked into the number.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 93 | 984 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 172.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 97 | 823 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 146.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 76 | 851 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 153.2 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7 | 0.7 | — | 120.7 | 88.7 | 886 | 4.3 | 1.3 | — | — | 158.8 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year record frames the range honestly. On the high end, Kelce's 2023 season showed 121 targets, 93 receptions, 984 yards, and 5 touchdowns — a profile that would comfortably outperform the current projection. On the low end, his 2024 season produced only 823 yards and 3 touchdowns despite a career-high 133 targets, illustrating how badly a touchdown drought can compress his fantasy value. The 2025 season split the difference: 108 targets, 76 receptions, 851 yards, and 5 scores. Touchdown variance is the primary lever. His catch rate and yardage have trended downward even as target volume has held, so the upside scenario depends on touchdowns staying at or above the 4–5 range he has averaged.
How to draft him
Kelce is coming off the board at an average draft position of 114.4 — pick 10.06 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a round-10 commitment for a player ranked #82 overall with a TE7 position rank. His bye falls in Week 5, so plan your streaming options accordingly for that week. At this stage of a draft, the decision is straightforward: if you want Kelce, round 10 is when the market says you have to spend the pick.
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Questions drafters ask
He drew 121 targets in 2023, 133 in 2024, and 108 in 2025 — a three-year average of 120.7 per season. Volume has remained elevated even as his yards-per-target efficiency has declined.
Slightly below. His draft value is -1.4, meaning the model projects him just under replacement level at the position. He ranks TE7 and #82 overall in Tier 9.
Based on market ADP of 114.4, he is going in round 10 (pick 10.06) in a 12-team snake draft.
Touchdowns. In 2024 he ran 133 targets but scored only 3 receiving touchdowns, suppressing his value. In 2023 and 2025 he scored 5 each. His three-year average is 4.3 receiving touchdowns, and that number will largely determine whether he outperforms or underperforms his 110.6-point projection.