#86 overall · KC · 114.8 projected half-PPR pts · -5.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 110.6
Travis Kelce — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Travis Kelce's three-year averages tell a consistent story: 120.7 targets, 88.7 receptions, 886 receiving yards, and 4.3 receiving touchdowns per season. That target volume is a real asset at a position where usage is often thin. In 2024 he set a personal three-year high with 133 targets, and in 2025 he posted five receiving touchdowns to match his 2023 total. The floor is real: 97 receptions in 2024 and 76 in 2025 show he remains a high-volume option even when yardage dips. For a drafter who wants a reliable target share at tight end without reaching early, the usage history is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 114.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at TE8 by position rank and #86 overall, placing Kelce in Tier 9. His draft value is -5.0, meaning the projection lands just below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 125.3 points, which is above the point estimate, reflecting a distribution that skews toward upside. His bye week is Week 5.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 121 | 93 | 984 | 5 | 1 | 172.9 |
| 2024 | 133 | 97 | 823 | 3 | 2 | 146.9 |
| 2025 | 108 | 76 | 851 | 5 | 1 | 153.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 120.7 | 88.7 | 886 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 158.8 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 59.6 points, a number that reflects genuine downside risk. The 25th percentile sits at 89.9 points. The median is 125.3 points. The 75th percentile reaches 147.8 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons land at or above 175.2 points. That spread from p10 to p90 runs nearly 116 points, which is a substantial range. A drafter taking Kelce is accepting real variance: the floor is low and the ceiling is meaningful.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Kelce going at pick 110.6 across two platforms, which translates to the 10th round, 3rd pick in a 12-team draft. The model has him at #86 overall and TE8. His bye falls in Week 5, so roster depth at tight end is worth planning for. Given the width of his outcome band, a drafter who lands him in the 10th round should have a contingency at the position rather than treating him as a locked-in weekly starter.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 120.7 targets per season over 2023-2025, with individual season totals of 121 (2023), 133 (2024), and 108 (2025).
The projection is 114.8 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks TE8 at his position and #86 overall, with a draft value of -5.0 against a 12-team half-PPR replacement baseline.
The simulated season band runs from 59.6 points at the 10th percentile to 175.2 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 125.3 points.
Market ADP places him at pick 110.6, which is the 3rd pick of the 10th round in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →