#30 overall · ARI · 163.7 projected half-PPR pts · +44.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 30.8
Trey McBride — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Trey McBride has done nothing but grow. In 2023 he caught 81 of 106 targets for 825 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2024 those numbers climbed to 111 receptions, 147 targets, and 1,146 yards. In 2025 he reached 126 receptions on 169 targets for 1,239 yards and 11 touchdowns. The three-year averages tell the same story: 140.7 targets, 106 receptions, 1,070 receiving yards, and 5.3 receiving touchdowns per season. That is a tight end who commands a massive target share and has shown he can convert it into touchdowns at a high rate. The volume floor is real, and the 2025 touchdown spike suggests the scoring upside is real too.
What the model projects
The projection is 163.7 half-PPR fantasy points. McBride carries a draft value of +44.0, meaning he projects 44.0 points above the replacement-level tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format. That surplus places him at TE1 and #30 overall, sitting in Tier 5 of the rankings. The point estimate of 163.7 sits below the median simulated season of 174.2, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution rather than any contradiction in the numbers.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 106 | 81 | 825 | 3 | 1 | 141.0 |
| 2024 | 147 | 111 | 1146 | 2 | — | 188.3 |
| 2025 | 169 | 126 | 1239 | 11 | — | 252.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 140.7 | 106 | 1070 | 5.3 | 0.3 | 193.7 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for a position where touchdown variance runs high. At the pessimistic end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 108.5 points. The 25th percentile lands at 138.8 and the median at 174.2. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 196.7 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reach 224.1 or better. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is roughly 116 points, so the range is genuine. A drafter buying McBride is accepting real downside in exchange for a ceiling that clears 224 points in the best simulated seasons.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
McBride is #30 overall and TE1. The market is drafting him at an average pick of 30.8, which works out to pick 3.07 in a 12-team snake draft. That means a drafter who wants him should be prepared to spend a third-round pick. At that slot, the decision is whether the +44.0 draft value surplus at tight end justifies the early commitment to the position. His bye is Week 14, which falls late in most fantasy playoff schedules, so plan your roster depth accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 140.7 targets per season over the 2023-2025 stretch, with the individual season totals climbing from 106 in 2023 to 147 in 2024 to 169 in 2025.
The p90 of the simulated season band is 224.1 half-PPR points, meaning 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at that level or above. The median simulated season is 174.2 points.
The market ADP is 30.8, which translates to pick 3.07 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to spend a third-round pick if you want him.
The p10 of the simulated season band is 108.5 half-PPR points, meaning 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below that total.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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