#34 overall · ARI · 145.0 projected half-PPR pts · +33.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 29.4
Trey McBride — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Trey McBride has built one of the most consistent target profiles at the tight end position over the past three seasons. He saw 106 targets in 2023, 147 in 2024, and 169 in 2025 — a clean upward trajectory that culminated in back-to-back 100-plus reception seasons (111 in 2024, 126 in 2025). The yardage followed the same arc: 825 receiving yards in 2023, 1,146 in 2024, 1,239 in 2025. The 2025 season added a genuine touchdown dimension — 11 receiving scores — after just three in 2023 and two in 2024. That combination of volume and efficiency is what lands him at TE1 and #34 overall entering 2026.
What the model projects
The model projects McBride at 145.0 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. That output produces a draft value of +33.1 — meaning he projects 33.1 points above the replacement-level tight end in a 12-team half-PPR league. He sits in Tier 6 on the overall board and ranks TE1 at his position. His three-year averages — 140.7 targets, 106 receptions, 1,070 receiving yards, and 5.3 receiving touchdowns per season — anchor the projection, with the 2025 spike in touchdowns informing the upside band.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 81 | 825 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 141.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 147 | 111 | 1146 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 188.3 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 126 | 1239 | 11 | — | 0 | 0 | 252.9 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 140.7 | 106 | 1070 | 5.3 | 0.3 | — | — | 193.7 |
The range of outcomes
McBride's season-outcome band reflects the variance a high-volume tight end carries. A typical season (p50) lands near the 145.0 projection. A poor season (p10) reflects the floor when target share compresses or touchdowns regress toward his 2023–2024 baseline of two to three scores. A strong season (p90) captures a repeat of 2025-level touchdown production layered on top of continued volume growth. His bye falls in Week 14, which is a consideration for managers in single-elimination playoff formats.
How to draft him
Market ADP has McBride going at pick 29.4 — that is round 3, pick 5 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our rank places him at #34 overall. Plan your board around the reality that he is coming off the board in the third round; if you want TE1 production, that is the window you are working with. His +33.1 draft value and TE1 designation make him a legitimate anchor for the tight end position, and knowing his draft slot lets you sequence the rest of your roster accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
By our model, yes — he ranks TE1 by draft value, with a +33.1 surplus over replacement level and a #34 overall rank on the full board.
Very consistent and growing: 106 targets in 2023, 147 in 2024, and 169 in 2025, for a three-year average of 140.7 per season.
The 11 receiving touchdowns in 2025 were a clear step up from 3 in 2023 and 2 in 2024. The three-year average sits at 5.3 per season, so the projection accounts for some regression from that peak while still crediting the improved role.
Market ADP puts him at pick 29.4 — round 3, pick 5 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, that is the round you need to be ready to spend.