#32 overall · LAC · 157.7 projected half-PPR pts · +35.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 39.5
Ladd McConkey — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ladd McConkey earned his spot on this board the hard way. In 2024 he hauled in 82 receptions on 112 targets for 1,149 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns — a genuine WR1 season in his first full year as a starter. The target volume held in 2025 (106 targets), and he still found the end zone 6 times despite a dip in yardage to 789. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 74 receptions, 109 targets, and 6.5 receiving touchdowns per year. That is a receiver who commands consistent volume and converts it into points. His draft value sits at +35.1, meaning he projects meaningfully above replacement level at the wide receiver position.
What the model projects
The model projects McConkey for 157.7 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. That output places him #32 overall and WR18 on the full board, landing him in Tier 6. The projection reflects a receiver who has demonstrated the target share and touchdown rate to be a reliable weekly contributor, even in a season where his yardage totals ran below his 2024 peak.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 112 | 82 | 1149 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 197.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 66 | 789 | 6 | — | 0 | 0 | 147.9 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 109 | 74 | 969 | 6.5 | 1 | — | — | 172.9 |
The range of outcomes
McConkey's profile carries real variance in both directions. The upside case is straightforward: his 2024 season showed what a full, healthy year with strong target volume looks like — 1,149 yards and 7 scores. The downside is equally visible in the record: his 2025 yardage dropped to 789 on a similar target count, showing that efficiency and situation can shift meaningfully year to year. He also fumbled twice in 2024, a minor but real negative. Drafters should expect a wide band of outcomes around the 157.7-point projection, with the ceiling anchored by his 2024 performance and the floor informed by his 2025 efficiency.
How to draft him
McConkey is going off the board at an average pick of 39.5 — that is the 4th round, 4th pick in a 12-team draft (4.04). Our model has him at #32 overall and WR18. Plan to spend a fourth-round pick if you want him on your roster. His bye is Week 7, which is worth noting for early-season roster management. At his tier and rank, he fits as a WR2 in your starting lineup with a clear path to WR1 production if his 2024 form reasserts itself.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes. In 2024 he posted 82 receptions on 112 targets for 1,149 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. That is the foundation the 157.7-point projection builds on.
It is a fair concern. He saw 106 targets in 2025 — nearly identical to his 2024 target count of 112 — but converted them into only 789 yards and 66 receptions compared to 1,149 yards and 82 receptions the year before. The volume was there; the efficiency was not. That gap is the core risk in his profile.
Market ADP has him going at pick 39.5 on average, which works out to 4.04 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, budget a fourth-round pick.
His draft value is +35.1, meaning he projects 35.1 points above the replacement-level wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR baseline. That surplus is what earns him the #32 overall ranking and the WR18 position rank.