#45 overall · LAC · 154.7 projected half-PPR pts · +26.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 40.0
Ladd McConkey — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ladd McConkey has back-to-back seasons of triple-digit targets with the Chargers, logging 112 in 2024 and 106 in 2025. The 2024 line reads 82 receptions, 1,149 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Even in a 2025 campaign that produced a reduced stat line, he still caught 66 passes for 789 yards and 6 scores on those 106 looks. The three-year aggregate settles at 74 receptions, 969 yards, and 6.5 touchdowns per season, confirming a consistent target share rather than a one-year spike. A receiver who absorbs 100-plus targets annually and converts them at that clip has a durable floor, and the 2024 ceiling is recent enough to take seriously.
What the model projects
The projection is 154.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits above replacement level at the wide receiver position, producing a Draft Value of +26.0. The ranking is #45 overall and WR19, placing McConkey in Tier 6. The point estimate is modestly below the median simulated season of 165.3, which reflects the natural spread of outcomes across a full season.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 112 | 82 | 1149 | 7 | 2 | 197.9 |
| 2025 | 106 | 66 | 789 | 6 | — | 147.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 109 | 74 | 969 | 6.5 | 1 | 172.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide, and that width is worth understanding before you draft him. In a bottom-10% season, McConkey finishes at 77.3 points, a number that would make him a weekly headache. The 25th percentile is 120.1, still below the projection. The median lands at 165.3, the 75th percentile at 199.1, and a top-10% season reaches 231.5. The distance from floor to ceiling, roughly 154 points between p10 and p90, signals meaningful variance. The upside is real; so is the downside. His bye falls in Week 7, which is a standard planning note for roster construction.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
McConkey is ranked #45 overall and WR19. Market ADP, drawn from two platforms, puts him at pick 40 overall, which translates to the 4th round, 4th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. At that point in the draft, a drafter targeting McConkey should have a plan for the position in the rounds before, because waiting past pick 40 carries real availability risk based on where the market is currently pricing him.
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Questions drafters ask
He has logged 112 targets in 2024 and 106 in 2025, with a three-year average of 109 per season. That is a consistent workload, not a single-season outlier.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 77.3 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 120.1. The floor is meaningful, and drafters should account for that variance when deciding how much roster capital to commit.
He is #45 overall and WR19, placed in Tier 6. His Draft Value is +26.0, meaning the projection sits above replacement level at the wide receiver position.
Market ADP across two platforms has him at pick 40 overall, which is the 4th round, 4th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the current market price for securing him on your roster.
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Beyond the numbers
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