#108 overall · JAX · 247.3 projected half-PPR pts · -12.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 94.9
Trevor Lawrence — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Trevor Lawrence's most recent full season is the argument. In 2025 he threw for 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns, added 9 rushing touchdowns on 82 carries for 359 yards, and kept fumbles lost to 3. That rushing touchdown production is a meaningful part of his fantasy floor, and the 3-year average of 5.3 rushing touchdowns per season confirms it is not a one-year anomaly. His 3-year average of 20.3 passing touchdowns, 3,356 passing yards, and 59.3 rush attempts per season shows a quarterback who contributes in multiple ways. The 2024 line — 172 completions, 2,045 yards, 11 passing touchdowns — is the outlier in the sample, not the baseline. The 2025 rebound to near-identical volume as 2023 is the more relevant data point heading into 2026.
What the model projects
The projection is 247.3 half-PPR fantasy points. Lawrence ranks QB10 at the position and #108 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -12.1, meaning the projection lands just below replacement level for a 12-team half-PPR league at his position. The point estimate of 247.3 sits above the median simulated season of 236.9, reflecting the shape of the outcome distribution rather than any discrepancy in the numbers.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 564 | 370 | 4016 | 21 | 14 | 70 | 339 | 4 | 11 | 274.5 |
| 2024 | 284 | 172 | 2045 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 119 | 3 | 2 | 146.2 |
| 2025 | 560 | 341 | 4007 | 29 | 12 | 82 | 359 | 9 | 5 | 348.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 469.3 | 294.3 | 3356 | 20.3 | 11 | 59.3 | 272.3 | 5.3 | 6 | 263.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Lawrence finishes at 96.8 points — a number that reflects how badly a truncated stat line can hurt a quarterback's fantasy value. The 25th percentile is 177.6, still a difficult season for fantasy purposes. The median lands at 236.9. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 303.8 and the 90th percentile reaches 358.6. That top-end number is consistent with a full season of 2025-level production. The spread from p10 to p90 is 261.8 points, which is a significant range and the central risk factor for any drafter considering Lawrence. His 3-year history includes one season that would fall near the bottom of that band, so the downside is not theoretical.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Lawrence is being taken at an average pick of 94.9 across two platforms, which works out to pick 8.11 in a 12-team snake draft. The model has him at #108 overall and QB10. His bye is Week 7, worth noting for roster management. Given the width of his outcome band, the decision comes down to how much downside risk a drafter is willing to absorb at the quarterback position in the late eighth round. If you are targeting Lawrence, that is the window to act.
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Questions drafters ask
He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4,007 yards, 29 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, while adding 359 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns on 82 carries, with 3 fumbles lost.
The band runs from 96.8 points at the 10th percentile to 358.6 at the 90th percentile. The bottom of that range is consistent with a season resembling his 2024 line: 172 completions, 2,045 yards, 11 passing touchdowns, and 3 rushing touchdowns.
QB10 at the position and #108 overall, with a draft value of -12.1, placing him just below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The market average is pick 94.9, or roughly pick 8.11 in a 12-team snake draft, based on data from two platforms. That is the round where you would need to commit if you want him.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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