#91 overall · JAX · 261.9 projected half-PPR pts · -5.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 82.4
Trevor Lawrence — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Trevor Lawrence's 2025 season was his best rushing performance on record: 82 attempts, 359 yards, and 9 rushing touchdowns. That ground contribution sits on top of 4,007 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns — a full-season workload that shows what Lawrence looks like when healthy and operating a complete offense. The three-year averages back the picture: 469.3 pass attempts, 3,356 passing yards, 20.3 passing touchdowns, and 5.3 rushing touchdowns per season. The 2024 campaign was abbreviated — 284 pass attempts, 2,045 yards, 11 passing touchdowns — but the surrounding seasons demonstrate the volume floor when he plays a full slate. A quarterback who can contribute at the ground level the way Lawrence did in 2025 carries a scoring profile that pure pocket passers cannot replicate.
What the model projects
The model projects Lawrence at 261.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That projection produces a draft value of -5.5, placing him #91 overall and QB7. He sits in Tier 9 on the board. The negative draft value reflects that, at this projection, he is expected to finish just below replacement level at the quarterback position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The 261.9 point estimate is the headline number; the tier and rank are derived from that value relative to the full positional landscape.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 564 | 370 | 4016 | 21 | 14 | 70 | 339 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 274.5 |
| 2024 | 284 | 172 | 2045 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 119 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 146.2 |
| 2025 | 560 | 341 | 4007 | 29 | 12 | 82 | 359 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 348.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 469.3 | 294.3 | 3356 | 20.3 | 11 | 59.3 | 272.3 | 5.3 | — | — | -1.7 | — | 6 | — | — | 263.3 |
The range of outcomes
Lawrence's three-year history illustrates genuine variance. In 2023 he threw 21 touchdowns against 14 interceptions with 11 fumbles (7 lost) across 564 attempts. In 2025 he cut the turnover rate — 12 interceptions, 5 fumbles, 3 lost — while posting career highs in rushing touchdowns. The 2024 season was cut short at 284 attempts. That pattern — one injury-shortened year bracketed by two full-season efforts — is the core of his outcome range. A healthy 2026 with the rushing efficiency of 2025 pushes his ceiling; another injury or a regression in ball security pulls the floor down. The interception count has fluctuated between 7 and 14 across the three seasons, and fumble losses between 1 and 7, so turnover variance is a real factor in where any given season lands.
How to draft him
Lawrence is #91 overall and QB7 in our rankings. His bye week is 7. Market ADP, drawn from 2 platforms, places him at pick 82.4 — round 7, pick 10 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him at current market rates. His Tier 9 placement and QB7 position rank are the relevant anchors for deciding where he fits in your quarterback strategy.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2025 he carried 82 times for 359 yards and 9 rushing touchdowns — his most productive rushing season in the three-year window. In 2023 he added 70 rush attempts, 339 yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns. The three-year average is 59.3 rush attempts and 272.3 rush yards per season, with 5.3 rushing touchdowns.
The 2024 season was abbreviated — 284 pass attempts, 2,045 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, 3 rushing touchdowns — which pulled his three-year averages down to 469.3 pass attempts, 3,356 passing yards, and 20.3 passing touchdowns per season. His full-season efforts in 2023 and 2025 both cleared 4,000 passing yards and 21-plus passing touchdowns.
He projects at 261.9 half-PPR fantasy points, which ranks him QB7 at his position and #91 overall. His draft value of -5.5 places him in Tier 9 on the board, just below replacement level for the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Market ADP across 2 platforms puts him at pick 82.4, which works out to round 7, pick 10 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick the market is currently requiring to land him.