Houston Texans — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Houston has been one of the more consistent pass-rush units in the league over the three seasons captured here. The Texans averaged 46.7 sacks per year from 2023 through 2025, with individual season totals of 44, 49, and 47. That kind of floor is real. Interceptions have been equally steady: 14 in 2023, then 19 in each of the next two seasons, for a three-year average of 17.3. Fumbles forced averaged 13.3 per year across the same window, with recoveries averaging 9.7. The 2025 season added a shutout game and held opponents to 295 points against, the lowest single-season total in this three-year stretch. For a DST, that combination of sack volume and turnover consistency is the foundation of a reliable fantasy floor.

What the model projects

The projection is 142.3 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. The draft value is -3.5, meaning the projection sits just below replacement level at the DST position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Houston ranks DST4 at the position and #81 overall. The unit carries a Tier 9 designation. The bye week falls in Week 8, which is worth noting for roster planning.

The range of outcomes

The three-season history shows meaningful variance in the categories that drive DST scoring. Points allowed swung from 295 in 2025 to 372 in 2024, a 77-point difference that directly affects fantasy output. Touchdown returns and safeties are the most volatile line items: touchdowns ranged from 1 to 2 across the three years, and safeties appeared only in 2024 (2) and averaged 0.7 per year. The distribution of games by points-allowed bracket also shifts year to year. In 2025, nine games landed in the 14-20 points-allowed range, the most favorable recurring bracket in the data; in 2023, only six games hit that range. A season that trends toward the 2025 defensive profile pushes the outcome higher; one that trends toward 2024's 372 points allowed pulls it lower.

How to draft him

Houston does not have a market ADP available across the tracked platforms, so there is no consensus draft slot to reference. What the numbers do say is this: at DST4 and #81 overall with a draft value of -3.5, the model places Houston just below replacement level for the position. That context should shape how late you are willing to wait. The sack and interception averages give the unit a credible floor, but the projection does not clear replacement level, so the calculus is about whether the consistency of the pass-rush profile justifies a roster spot over alternatives you have no facts about. The Week 8 bye is a concrete planning variable: budget a streaming option for that week regardless of how you value the unit long-term.

The model projects 142.3 points and a draft value of -3.5, placing Houston just below replacement level at the position. It ranks DST4 and #81 overall in Tier 9. The three-year averages of 46.7 sacks and 17.3 interceptions per season show a consistent pass-rush and turnover profile, but the projection does not clear replacement level, so treating Houston as a primary DST carries some risk relative to the position baseline.

Quite consistent in the high-volume categories. Sacks were 44, 49, and 47 from 2023 through 2025 (46.7 average). Interceptions were 14, 19, and 19 (17.3 average). Fumbles forced averaged 13.3 per year. Points allowed dropped from 372 in 2024 to 295 in 2025, and 2025 included one shutout game.

Week 8. Plan to stream a replacement DST for that week.

In 2025, nine of Houston's games landed in the 14-20 points-allowed bracket, the most of any single bracket that season, and the unit posted one shutout. In 2024, six games landed in the 21-27 bracket and three in the 28-34 bracket, reflecting a harder defensive year that coincided with 372 total points allowed. The year-to-year shift in that distribution is the clearest indicator of how much the outcome can move.