#101 overall · IND · 117.8 projected half-PPR pts · -11.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 99.0
Josh Downs — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Josh Downs has been one of the more consistent volume receivers in Indianapolis over the past three seasons. He has cleared 88 targets in each year from 2023 through 2025, averaging 97.7 targets per season across that stretch. His reception totals have been equally steady: 68, 72, and 58 catches in those three years, averaging 66 per season. The touchdown rate ticked up in 2024, when he caught five scoring passes on 107 targets, and he held onto four in 2025 on 88 targets. That kind of floor in target share is the foundation of any late-round receiver argument. He is WR44 in the rankings, which means the position depth around him is real, but so is his track record of being on the field and getting the ball.
What the model projects
The projection is 117.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -11.0, placing him #101 overall and in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 113.5 points, is close to the point estimate, signaling a relatively tight central tendency in the model's output for him.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 98 | 68 | 771 | 2 | — | — | 123.1 |
| 2024 | 107 | 72 | 803 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 147.5 |
| 2025 | 88 | 58 | 566 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 109.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 97.7 | 66 | 713.3 | 3.7 | 1 | 3.3 | 126.9 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 43.9 points, a number that reflects how badly a low-volume, low-touchdown season can crater a receiver's fantasy value. The 25th percentile lands at 75.2 points, still a difficult fantasy contributor. The median is 113.5 points. Move to the optimistic side and the 75th percentile reaches 148.8 points, with the top-10% threshold at 191.3 points. That 191.3 ceiling is meaningful: it represents a season where targets, efficiency, and touchdowns all trend in the right direction simultaneously. The spread from p10 to p90 runs 147.4 points, which is a wide band for a player projected at 117.8. Drafters should enter with eyes open to both ends of that range.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Downs going at pick 99.0, which works out to round 9, pick 3 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #101 overall and WR44. In a 12-team half-PPR league, a ninth-round pick on a receiver with a negative draft value is a bet on the upside band rather than a projection-backed floor. His bye is Week 13, which falls late in most fantasy playoff schedules and is worth noting when constructing a roster. If you are targeting him, round 9 is the window the market is currently setting.
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Questions drafters ask
He has seen 98, 107, and 88 targets in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, for a three-year average of 97.7 targets per season.
The projection is 117.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -11.0, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #101 overall and WR44.
The band runs from 43.9 points at the 10th percentile to 191.3 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 113.5 points. The top-10% threshold of 191.3 represents the realistic ceiling if volume and touchdowns align favorably.
His market ADP is 99.0, which translates to round 9, pick 3 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
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Beyond the numbers
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