#81 overall · IND · 121.4 projected half-PPR pts · -1.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 105.6
Josh Downs — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Josh Downs has been one of the more quietly consistent receivers in Indianapolis over the past three seasons. He has cleared 98 targets in 2023, 107 in 2024, and 88 in 2025 — averaging 97.7 targets per year across that stretch. His reception totals have tracked similarly: 68, 72, and 58 catches, averaging 66 per season. The volume is real and it has been durable. Touchdown production ticked up in 2024 (5 receiving TDs) and held at 4 in 2025, giving him a three-year average of 3.7 receiving touchdowns. For a receiver sitting at WR40, that kind of target floor is the foundation of any argument to roster him. He has a Week 13 bye, which is late enough to avoid most playoff-week conflicts.
What the model projects
The model projects Downs at 121.4 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value sits at -1.1, placing him just below replacement level at the wide receiver position. That lands him at #81 overall and WR40, in Tier 9 on the board. The projection reflects his established target share and modest but real touchdown upside, tempered by the fact that his receiving yard totals have ranged from 566 to 803 across three seasons — consistent, but not explosive. At this rank, the model sees him as a depth piece whose floor is grounded in volume.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 68 | 771 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 123.1 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 107 | 72 | 803 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 147.5 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 88 | 58 | 566 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 109.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3.3 | — | 97.7 | 66 | 713.3 | 3.7 | — | — | 126.9 |
The range of outcomes
Downs' three-season history tells a story of moderate variance. His best receiving year was 803 yards in 2024 with 5 touchdowns; his softest was 566 yards in 2025 with 4 touchdowns. The target volume has stayed in a relatively tight band — 88 to 107 — which limits the downside but also caps the ceiling. A season closer to his 2024 line (803 yards, 5 TDs, 72 catches on 107 targets) represents the optimistic outcome. A repeat of 2025 (566 yards, 4 TDs, 58 catches on 88 targets) is the floor scenario. The three-year averages — 713.3 receiving yards, 66 receptions, 97.7 targets, 3.7 TDs — represent the most likely landing zone.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Downs going at pick 105.6 — that is round 9, pick 10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our model has him at #81 overall and WR40 in Tier 9. If you want him, the market is currently taking him in the ninth round. At that stage of a draft, he profiles as a depth wide receiver who can contribute in weeks where your starters are on bye or banged up, with a realistic path to WR3 production if his target volume trends back toward the 107 he saw in 2024. His Week 13 bye is late and manageable. Know your roster construction before the ninth round and have a plan for whether you need a high-floor depth piece or are still hunting upside.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He has seen 98, 107, and 88 targets across 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively — a three-year average of 97.7 targets per season. That is a consistent workload for a receiver at his position rank.
Slightly below. His draft value is -1.1, meaning the model projects him just under replacement level at the WR position. He ranks #81 overall and WR40 in Tier 9.
Market ADP puts him at pick 105.6 — round 9, pick 10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Plan to spend a ninth-round pick if he is on your target list.
His strongest season on record was 2024: 803 receiving yards, 72 receptions on 107 targets, and 5 receiving touchdowns. That is the ceiling scenario the history supports.