#80 overall · GB · 121.9 projected half-PPR pts · -0.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 102.7
Jayden Reed — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jayden Reed has shown he can produce in Green Bay's offense. In 2023 he hauled in 64 receptions on 94 targets for 793 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns, adding 119 rush yards and 2 rush touchdowns on 11 carries — a genuine dual-threat profile that kept defenses honest. He followed that with 857 receiving yards and 6 receiving touchdowns in 2024, while also logging 163 rush yards on 20 carries. The rushing usage is real and consistent: over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 11.3 rush attempts and 103.3 rush yards per season, giving him a floor that pure pass-catchers don't carry. His 3-year average of 63.7 targets and 5 receiving touchdowns per season reflects a player who has been a reliable part of the Packers' offensive plan when healthy.
What the model projects
The model projects Reed at 121.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value sits at -0.6, meaning he projects just a hair below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. That places him at #80 overall and WR39. He lands in Tier 9 on the board — a tier that reflects a player whose projected output is close to the replacement threshold, with limited surplus value baked in at this stage.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 119 | 2 | 94 | 64 | 793 | 8 | — | 0 | 0 | 183.2 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 163 | 1 | 75 | 55 | 857 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 169.5 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 22 | 19 | 207 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | 39.0 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 11.3 | 103.3 | 1 | 63.7 | 46 | 619 | 5 | 0.3 | — | — | 131.2 |
The range of outcomes
Reed's season-to-season history illustrates exactly why the range of outcomes matters here. He posted 793 receiving yards in 2023 and 857 in 2024, then managed only 207 receiving yards on 22 targets in 2025 — a sharp drop that pulls his three-year averages down considerably. The 2025 line (19 receptions, 1 receiving touchdown, 28 rush yards) reads like a season interrupted rather than a full-season baseline, but it is part of the record. When healthy and targeted at his 2023–2024 rate, Reed has shown the ability to produce at a meaningful clip. When availability or target share dips, the floor is low. That variance is the central tension in his profile, and drafters should price it accordingly.
How to draft him
Reed is coming off the board at an average draft position of 102.7 — round 9, pick 7 in a 12-team draft — based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #80 overall and WR39. At his current market price, he is a late-round flier whose upside is tied to recapturing the target volume and touchdown rate he showed in 2023 and 2024. His bye is Week 11, which is worth noting for roster management in the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. If you are building depth at receiver and want a player with demonstrated dual-threat usage in a functional offense, Reed is a name to have on your radar in the back half of your draft.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 121.9 half-PPR points with a draft value of -0.6, placing him at #80 overall and WR39 in Tier 9. He projects just below replacement level, so he carries more upside-play value than locked-in starter value. His 2023 and 2024 seasons — 793 and 857 receiving yards with 8 and 6 receiving touchdowns respectively — show the ceiling is real if he recaptures that role.
In 2025 Reed recorded only 207 receiving yards, 19 receptions on 22 targets, and 1 receiving touchdown — a significant step back from his 2023–2024 production. That line pulls his three-year averages down to 619 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2025 data is part of the projection inputs, which is reflected in his near-replacement-level draft value of -0.6.
His market ADP is 102.7, which works out to round 9, pick 7 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick range where he is currently being selected across public drafts.
Yes — he has consistent rushing usage. He averaged 11.3 rush attempts and 103.3 rush yards per season over the 2023–2025 span, and posted 20 carries for 163 rush yards in 2024 alone. That dual-threat element provides a modest floor that a pure pass-catcher at this tier typically would not have.