#28 overall · CAR · 160.3 projected half-PPR pts · +37.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 35.4
Tetairoa McMillan — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tetairoa McMillan arrived in Carolina and immediately became the focal point of the passing game. As a rookie in 2025, he absorbed 122 targets, hauled in 70 receptions for 1,014 yards, and found the end zone 7 times. That is a legitimate WR1 target share on a team that leaned on him from day one. The volume was real, the production was real, and he is still at the beginning of his development curve. A full offseason as the unquestioned top option in Carolina's offense sets the table for a step forward in 2026.
What the model projects
The model projects McMillan at 160.3 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026, generating a Draft Value of +37.8 above the wide receiver replacement level. That surplus places him at WR15 among all wide receivers and #28 overall on the board. He sits in Tier 6, a cluster of players whose projected value is meaningfully above replacement but separated from the elite tiers at the top of the board. The projection reflects a receiver who has already demonstrated the target volume to sustain fantasy relevance and carries upside as he enters his second NFL season.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 70 | 1014 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 178.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 122 | 70 | 1014 | 7 | — | — | 178.4 |
The range of outcomes
McMillan's profile carries real variance. He is a young receiver on a developing offense, which means the floor and ceiling are both in play. A modest regression in target share, a tougher defensive schedule, or inconsistent quarterback play could push his season toward the lower end of simulated outcomes. On the other hand, a natural Year 2 leap — sharper route running, better chemistry with his quarterback, and more red-zone looks — could push his scoring well above the 160.3 projection. Drafters should expect a wide band of outcomes and price that uncertainty into their roster construction accordingly.
How to draft him
McMillan's market ADP sits at 35.4, which works out to pick 3.11 in a 12-team snake draft — late third round. That is the pick you will need to spend to secure him before the market moves on. Our model has him at #28 overall and WR15. Plan your board around the third round if McMillan is on your target list, and know that waiting even a few picks risks losing him to another drafter. His bye is Week 5, which is early enough to manage without significant roster stress.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2025, McMillan posted 122 targets, 70 receptions, 1,014 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns — a full, productive rookie campaign as Carolina's clear top receiver.
The model projects him at 160.3 half-PPR points with a Draft Value of +37.8, placing him WR15 at his position and #28 overall, in Tier 6 on the full board.
His market ADP is 35.4 — pick 3.11 in a 12-team draft. Plan to use a third-round selection if you want him on your roster.
McMillan's bye week is Week 5, one of the earlier byes on the calendar, so plan your roster depth accordingly in the early weeks of the season.