#23 overall · NO · 168.9 projected half-PPR pts · +46.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 23.9
Chris Olave — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Chris Olave has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons when healthy, hauling in 87 catches for 1,123 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2023, then following that with 100 receptions for 1,163 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2025. That 2025 campaign saw him command 156 targets — the kind of volume that anchors a fantasy WR1 profile. His three-year average of 112.7 targets and 895.3 receiving yards per season reflects the drag of a limited 2024, yet his two full seasons on either side of it show a receiver who can absorb a massive target share and convert it. The touchdown upside is real: nine scores in 2025 confirm he can finish drives, not just accumulate yardage. He sits in Tier 5 on the board, ranked WR13 with a draft value of +46.4 points above replacement — a positive surplus that confirms he projects meaningfully ahead of the replacement-level wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
What the model projects
The projection for Olave is 168.9 half-PPR fantasy points, placing him #23 overall and WR13. His draft value of +46.4 reflects a meaningful surplus above the replacement-level baseline at wide receiver. The 2025 season — 156 targets, 100 receptions, 1,163 yards, 9 touchdowns — is the most recent full data point, and the projection sits in the same general neighborhood as that output. The 2024 season produced only 44 targets, 32 receptions, 400 yards, and 1 touchdown, which pulls the three-year averages down considerably. The 168.9 projection lands between those two poles, consistent with the full-season performances on record.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 87 | 1123 | 5 | — | 0 | 0 | 185.8 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 44 | 32 | 400 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 60.7 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 156 | 100 | 1163 | 9 | — | 0 | 0 | 219.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.3 | — | — | — | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | — | 112.7 | 73 | 895.3 | 5 | 0.3 | — | — | 155.9 |
The range of outcomes
Olave's history makes the range of outcomes wide. In a full, healthy season he has shown the ability to reach 1,100-plus receiving yards and approach double-digit touchdowns — his 2025 line is the evidence. His 2024, however, produced just 400 receiving yards and 44 targets across a sharply reduced workload. That variance is baked into any honest outlook. The upside case is a repeat of 2025-level volume and efficiency. The downside case is a season that looks closer to 2024. Drafters should treat both endpoints as live possibilities rather than outliers.
How to draft him
Olave's market ADP is 23.9, which works out to pick 2.12 in a 12-team snake draft — the final pick of the second round. That is where you will need to spend a pick to secure him. His bye is Week 8, which is worth noting for roster management but is not a reason to avoid him. At WR13 with a +46.4 draft value surplus, he sits in Tier 5 on the board. Know your number, know the pick, and be ready to commit at the turn of the second round if he is still on the board.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2023 he saw 138 targets. In 2025 he saw 156 targets. His 2024 was sharply reduced at just 44 targets. The three-year average comes out to 112.7 targets per season, which is pulled down by that limited 2024 campaign.
He posted 9 receiving touchdowns on 156 targets and 1,163 yards in 2025. His 2023 season produced 5 touchdowns on 138 targets. The projection of 168.9 points sits between those two output levels, reflecting both the high-end 2025 performance and the variance in his three-year record.
He is ranked #23 overall and WR13, with a draft value of +46.4. That positive number means he projects 46.4 points above the replacement-level wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR baseline — a meaningful surplus at the position.
His market ADP is 23.9, which translates to pick 2.12 in a 12-team draft — the last pick of the second round. That is the price the market is currently charging to secure him.