Ted Hurst — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Ted Hurst is a wide receiver on Tampa Bay with a bye in Week 10. At WR95 and #281 overall, he sits deep in Tier 9, and the projection reflects that. The honest case for rostering him is roster-depth speculation: if you are in a very deep league, need a late-season stash, or are building a large bench, Hurst is a name to know. There is no market ADP to reference, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to register one. That alone tells you where he stands in the current draft landscape.

What the model projects

The projection is 53.3 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His draft value is -75.1, meaning he projects below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These are Tier 9 numbers, and they should be read plainly: this is a player the model does not expect to contribute meaningful fantasy production in a standard-sized league.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The median simulated season lands at 35.1 points. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produce 1.6 points or fewer, essentially a non-factor. The 25th percentile sits at 14.6 points, still well below useful fantasy territory. The upside tail is more interesting: the 75th percentile reaches 68.1 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at 110.4 points. That upper tail is the only scenario in which Hurst becomes relevant. The gap between the median and the p90 is substantial, which means the distribution is heavily right-skewed. Most seasons end quietly; a small slice end with something worth noticing.

How to draft him

There is no market ADP for Hurst, so there is no draft-clock pressure here. He is not being taken in public drafts with enough consistency to establish a price. In a standard 12-team league, he is a waiver-wire name, not a draft-day target. In a deeper format where rosters extend far enough to make WR95 worth a final-round flier, he is a candidate for the last pick of the draft, taken only after every player with a positive draft value has been claimed. Do not spend a meaningful pick on a player projecting at -75.1 draft value unless your league's depth requirements specifically demand it.

The model projects him at 53.3 half-PPR points with a draft value of -75.1, meaning he projects below replacement level. He has no market ADP, indicating he is not being consistently drafted in public leagues. In a standard 12-team format, he is not a draft-day target.

The top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at 110.4 points, and the 75th percentile reaches 68.1 points. The upside exists but requires an outcome well above the median simulated season of 35.1 points.

Hurst's bye is Week 10.

The simulated season band runs from 1.6 points at the 10th percentile to 110.4 points at the 90th percentile, with a median of 35.1. That is a very wide band, reflecting significant season-to-season variance in projected outcomes.