Najee Harris — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Najee Harris arrives in New York with two consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons on his resume. In 2023 he carried 255 times for 1,035 yards and 8 touchdowns, adding 29 receptions for 170 yards. In 2024 he matched that output almost exactly: 263 attempts, 1,043 yards, 6 touchdowns, and a career-high 36 receptions for 283 receiving yards. The receiving work is real and consistent. His target share grew from 38 in 2023 to 48 in 2024, and his receptions climbed each year. For a drafter hunting late-round depth, Harris has a documented floor as a high-volume ball-carrier with a legitimate role in the passing game.

What the model projects

The projection is 49.8 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Harris ranks RB65 and sits at #293 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -77.3, which is below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 tell part of the story: 177.7 rush attempts, 713 rush yards, 4.7 rushing touchdowns, 22.7 receptions, 159.3 receiving yards, and 29.7 targets per season. The 2025 season produced only 15 rush attempts, 61 rush yards, 3 receptions, and 25 receiving yards, and those numbers pull the three-year averages down considerably from the 2023 and 2024 peaks.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Harris finishes at 0.8 points, a near-zero contribution. At the 25th percentile he reaches 11.9 points. The median simulated season lands at 33.7 points. The 75th percentile produces 74.4 points, and the 90th percentile reaches 111.7 points. That spread from 0.8 to 111.7 reflects genuine uncertainty about his role and workload. The upside at p90 is meaningful; the downside at p10 is essentially nothing. Drafters should treat this as a high-variance late-round selection, not a reliable weekly contributor.

How to draft him

Harris is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick number to plan around. At RB65 and #293 overall in Tier 9, he belongs at the very back end of drafts, if he is rostered at all. His negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level, so the calculus is simple: he is a speculative add, not a planned pick. If you are targeting upside in the final rounds, the p90 outcome of 111.7 points shows the ceiling exists. Just understand that the median simulated season is 33.7 points, and the bottom of the band is nearly zero.

The model projects him at 49.8 points with a draft value of -77.3, which is below replacement level at running back. He ranks RB65 and #293 overall in Tier 9. He is a speculative late-round or waiver-wire option, not a planned roster piece.

His receiving work has been consistent when he has been active. He posted 29 receptions on 38 targets in 2023 and 36 receptions on 48 targets in 2024. His three-year average is 22.7 receptions and 29.7 targets per season, though the 2025 season contributed only 3 receptions on 3 targets.

Very wide. The simulated season band runs from 0.8 points at the 10th percentile to 111.7 points at the 90th percentile. The median outcome is 33.7 points. That spread signals high variance; the upside is real but so is the floor of near-zero production.

There is no market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. His rank of #293 overall places him at the very end of a standard draft. Treat him as a late-round flier or a post-draft add rather than a targeted pick.