Tez Johnson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Tez Johnson's 2025 season with Tampa Bay produced 28 receptions on 44 targets for 322 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. That touchdown rate relative to his target volume is the most compelling number in his profile. Five scores on 44 looks is a meaningful conversion rate, and it is the primary reason he shows up on any late-round radar at all. Add 7 rush attempts for 22 yards and you have a player with at least a token role in the run game. His three-year aggregate matches his 2025 line exactly, which tells you everything you need to know about his NFL tenure: 2025 was his first real season of production. The foundation is thin, but the touchdowns are real.

What the model projects

The projection is 53.6 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That puts Johnson at WR91 and #266 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -71.6, which is below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection reflects a player operating at the outer edge of the fantasy-relevant pool. His bye week is Week 10.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band on Johnson is exceptionally wide relative to his point estimate. The median simulated season lands at 35.4 points, notably below the 53.6 projection. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces just 1.7 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 14.8. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 68.4 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 110.8. That 110.8 ceiling is more than three times the median outcome. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 109.1 points, a spread that signals high variance in either direction. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the projection; the rare strong outcome pulls the point estimate upward. Plan for the median, not the ceiling.

How to draft him

Johnson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough on major platforms to generate one. He is a free agent in most draft rooms. At WR91 and #266 overall with a negative draft value, he belongs on the deepest end of your roster as a speculative add, if he appears at all. The touchdown upside is real, but the median outcome and the below-replacement projection make him a last-resort option rather than a target. If you are chasing the 110.8-point ceiling, understand that the 1.7-point floor is equally possible.

His projection is 53.6 points and his draft value is -71.6, placing him below replacement level at WR in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks WR91 and #266 overall in Tier 9. He is not a player to target, but his five receiving touchdowns on 44 targets in 2025 give him a late-flier profile if he is available for free at the end of a draft.

Johnson does not have a market ADP. He is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to generate one, so he is effectively undrafted in most leagues.

The 90th-percentile simulated season produces 110.8 half-PPR points. That is the top 10 percent of outcomes. The 75th percentile is 68.4 points. Both figures are well above his 53.6-point projection, but the median simulated season is only 35.4 points, so strong outcomes are the exception rather than the expectation.

His three-year aggregate through 2025 matches his 2025 season exactly: 28 receptions, 44 targets, 322 receiving yards, 5 receiving touchdowns, 7 rush attempts, and 22 rush yards. All of his NFL production came in 2025.