#168 overall · HOU · 93.2 projected half-PPR pts · -35.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 169.9
Tank Dell — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tank Dell has been a consistent target-getter in Houston's offense across three seasons. His three-year averages tell the story plainly: 78 targets, 49 receptions, 688 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per season. He has also contributed on the ground, averaging 10 rush attempts and 47 rush yards per year. In 2023 he posted 75 targets, 47 catches, 709 yards, and 7 touchdowns. In 2024 he ran a nearly identical route: 81 targets, 51 catches, 667 yards. The target volume has been durable and real. For a drafter filling out the back end of a roster, that kind of floor has appeal.
What the model projects
The projection is 93.2 half-PPR fantasy points. Dell ranks #168 overall and WR65, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -35.8, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number and the draft value tell different stories, and both are worth holding in mind: the raw point total is real, but the surplus over a freely available replacement is negative.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 75 | 47 | 709 | 7 | 11 | 51 | 141.5 |
| 2024 | 81 | 51 | 667 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 114.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 78 | 49 | 688 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 128.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The p10 outcome is 22.0 points, a near-total washout of a season. The p25 sits at 44.9 points, still well below the projection. The median simulated season lands at 78.1 points, a few ticks below the 93.2 point estimate. The p75 outcome is 114.3 points, and the p90 is 164.2 points. That top-decile outcome is nearly double the projection and more than seven times the bottom-decile result. The spread here is among the widest in the late rounds: Dell is either a near-zero contributor or a genuine weekly starter, with very little middle ground. Drafters should price in that variance honestly.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 169.9, which works out to pick 15.02 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That puts him squarely in the final rounds of a standard draft. At that stage of a draft, roster spots are cheap and the cost of a miss is low. Dell's target history gives him a real path to the p75-p90 band of outcomes. His bye is Week 8, worth noting for roster management. Draft him as a late-round flier with eyes open to the downside the band describes.
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Questions drafters ask
Across the three-season aggregate (2023-2025), Dell averaged 78 targets and 49 receptions per year. In 2023 he saw 75 targets; in 2024 that climbed to 81. The volume has been consistent.
The projection is 93.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -35.8, placing him below replacement level at WR in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #168 overall and WR65 in Tier 9.
Very wide. The p10 simulated season is 22.0 points and the p90 is 164.2 points. The median simulated season is 78.1 points. The gap between the bottom and top decile is over 140 points, so the outcome variance is significant.
Market ADP is 169.9, or pick 15.02 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. He is a late-round target, typically coming off the board in the final round of a standard 15-round draft.
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Beyond the numbers
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