#25 overall · GB · 161.7 projected half-PPR pts · +44.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 25.6
Josh Jacobs — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Josh Jacobs has been one of the most consistent volume backs in the league over the past three seasons. Averaged 256 rush attempts, 1,021 rush yards, and 11.3 rush touchdowns per year from 2023 through 2025 — that is a workhorse profile that does not require a favorable game script to produce. His 2024 season was the peak of that stretch: 301 carries, 1,329 rush yards, and 15 rushing touchdowns, with an additional receiving touchdown on 36 catches for 342 yards. Even in his quieter 2025 campaign, he still logged 234 carries, 929 rush yards, 13 rushing touchdowns, and 36 receptions. The floor here is real. Jacobs has cleared 36 receptions in each of the last three seasons, averaging 47 targets per year, which adds a reliable PPR cushion on top of his ground production. He lands in Green Bay with a clear path to lead-back duties and a touchdown-scoring track record that holds up across multiple seasons and multiple offenses.
What the model projects
The model projects Jacobs at 161.7 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That output places him #25 overall and RB11 by draft value, sitting in Tier 5 on the board. His draft value comes in at +44.8, meaning he projects 44.8 points above the replacement-level running back in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. That surplus is the engine behind his ranking — he is not just a starter, he is a starter who is expected to meaningfully outpace what a drafter could pick up off the waiver wire at the position.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 805 | 6 | 54 | 37 | 296 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 162.6 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 301 | 1329 | 15 | 43 | 36 | 342 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 275.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 929 | 13 | 44 | 36 | 282 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 219.1 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 256 | 1021 | 11.3 | 47 | 36.3 | 306.7 | 0.7 | 3.3 | — | — | 222.9 |
The range of outcomes
Jacobs carries real variance in both directions. His fumble history is the most consistent concern in his profile — he has fumbled 3, 4, and 3 times over the last three seasons, losing 1, 3, and 2 of those respectively. A season where fumbles cost him carries or touchdowns is the clearest path to the low end. On the upside, his 2024 season demonstrated what the ceiling looks like when the touchdown rate stays elevated and the workload holds: 301 carries and 15 rushing scores. The projection at 161.7 points sits between those poles. Drafters should expect a season that looks more like his three-year averages than a repeat of his 2024 peak, but the touchdown upside is genuine and has shown up consistently enough to take seriously.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Jacobs going at pick 25.6 — that is the 3rd round, 2nd pick in a 12-team snake draft (3.02), based on a median across two platforms. Our model ranks him #25 overall and RB11. Plan to spend a third-round pick if you want him on your roster. His bye is Week 11, which is late enough in the season to matter for playoff-week roster management — factor that into your scheduling calculus when building around him.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 256 rush attempts, 1,021 rush yards, and 47 targets per year from 2023 through 2025. His single-season high was 301 carries in 2024. That is a true workhorse volume profile across three consecutive seasons.
The model projects him at 161.7 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him #25 overall and RB11 by draft value. His draft value of +44.8 means he projects nearly 45 points above replacement level at the running back position.
Fumbles. Jacobs has fumbled 3, 4, and 3 times over the last three seasons, losing 1, 3, and 2 of those. A season where ball security becomes a problem could cost him carries and reduce his overall production.
Market ADP puts him at pick 25.6, which works out to the 2nd pick of the 3rd round (3.02) in a 12-team snake draft. That is the window you need to be prepared to spend if you want him on your team.