#901 overall · IND · 35.3 projected half-PPR pts · -133.5 Draft Value
Spencer Shrader — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Spencer Shrader handled every extra point attempt in 2025, converting all 14, and finished the year 13-for-14 on field goals with a miss total of just one. His 2025 line was a clear step up from 2024, when he went 5-for-5 on field goals and 9-for-9 on extra points across a smaller sample. Over the three-year aggregate from 2023 through 2025, he averages 9 field goals and 11.5 extra points per season on 9.5 field goal attempts, with an average of 0.5 misses per year. The accuracy profile is clean. For a drafter who wants a kicker with a demonstrated track record of not leaving points on the field, Shrader's recent history provides that foundation.
What the model projects
The projection is 35.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -133.5, placing him K48 and #901 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect where kickers as a position group sit in value-over-replacement terms: even a productive kicker operates well below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. Shrader's projection is what it is at this position tier, and the rank and tier are the honest summary of his standing in the overall rankings.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | — | 9 | 26.0 |
| 2025 | 13 | 1 | 14 | 56.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 9 | 0.5 | 11.5 | 11.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is typical for kickers. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces essentially nothing. The p25 sits at just 0.4 points. The median simulated season lands at 5.7 points. The p75 reaches 33.2 points, and the p90 climbs to 69.6 points. That spread from floor to ceiling is substantial. A great season, top 10% of simulations, produces nearly 70 points; a bad one produces almost none. The variance here is not a quirk of this player specifically but a structural feature of the kicker position, and the band reflects it plainly.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Shrader does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough on major platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. In practice, kickers are taken in the final rounds of most snake drafts, and Shrader's Tier 9 standing at K48 and #901 overall confirms he is a late-round, low-priority target. His bye falls in Week 13, worth noting for playoff-week roster management. Draft him only after every other positional need is addressed, and treat the pick as a low-cost speculative add on his 2025 accuracy and volume rather than a projection-driven commitment.
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Questions drafters ask
He went 13-for-14 on field goals, including 10 from 0-39 yards, 2 from 40-49, and 1 from 50-plus, while converting all 14 extra point attempts for a single miss on the season.
The projection is 35.3 half-PPR fantasy points, with a median simulated season of 5.7 points and a p90 outcome of 69.6 points.
He is K48 and #901 overall, placed in Tier 9, with a draft value of -133.5.
He has no market ADP available, meaning he is not being consistently drafted across public platforms. His standing at K48 and #901 overall in Tier 9 puts him at the very bottom of the rankings; draft him only after all other positional needs are filled, and keep his Week 13 bye in mind for playoff scheduling.
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Beyond the numbers
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