#76 overall · DET · 112.0 projected half-PPR pts · +0.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 82.2
Sam LaPorta — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Sam LaPorta arrived in Detroit in 2023 and immediately delivered one of the more productive rookie tight end seasons in recent memory: 120 targets, 86 receptions, 889 receiving yards, and 10 touchdown catches. That debut established him as a genuine weapon in the Lions' offense, not a depth piece waiting for opportunity. The target volume alone — 120 in year one — signaled that Detroit was willing to funnel real work through their tight end. Even as production dipped in 2024 (83 targets, 60 receptions, 726 yards, 7 TDs) and again in 2025 (49 targets, 40 receptions, 489 yards, 3 TDs), the underlying role has never disappeared. He is TE6 entering 2026, sitting inside the top 80 overall, and the three-year averages — 84 targets, 62 receptions, 701 receiving yards, and 6.7 receiving touchdowns per season — reflect a player whose floor is tied to a high-powered offense that has consistently looked his way.
What the model projects
The model projects LaPorta at 112.0 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026, placing him #76 overall and TE6. His draft value sits at exactly +0.0, meaning he projects right at replacement level for the tight end position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. He lands in Tier 9 on the overall board. The projection reflects a player whose role in Detroit's offense is real but whose recent trajectory — targets declining from 120 in 2023 to 83 in 2024 to 49 in 2025 — introduces meaningful uncertainty about how much volume he recaptures heading into year four.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 120 | 86 | 889 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 192.3 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 60 | 726 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 144.6 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 40 | 489 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 86.9 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | 1.3 | — | 84 | 62 | 701.3 | 6.7 | — | — | 141.5 |
The range of outcomes
LaPorta's three-season arc tells the story of his range. In 2023 he was a 120-target, 10-touchdown producer. By 2025 he was a 49-target, 3-touchdown contributor. The three-year averages (84 targets, 62 receptions, 701 yards, 6.7 TDs) sit comfortably between those poles and represent the realistic median expectation. The upside case is a return toward his 2023 usage — if Detroit's target distribution shifts back in his favor, the touchdown rate and yardage totals can climb quickly. The downside case is a continuation of the 2025 trend, where he functions as a secondary option with limited ceiling. His bye falls in Week 6, which is worth noting for roster management but does not change the underlying value calculus.
How to draft him
Market ADP has LaPorta going at pick 82.2 — round 7, pick 10 in a 12-team draft, per the median across two platforms. The model has him at #76 overall and TE6. At the tight end position, where reliable production is scarce, knowing exactly when you need to commit a pick is useful information: if you want LaPorta, round 7 is when the market says you have to act. His bye in Week 6 is early enough that you will want a handable backup on the roster. Given his +0.0 draft value, he is a replacement-level tight end by the model's measure — draft him if your board construction leaves you needing a TE in that range, and do not reach earlier expecting a surplus that the projection does not currently show.
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Questions drafters ask
He projects at 112.0 half-PPR points as TE6 and #76 overall, with a draft value of exactly +0.0 — right at replacement level for the position. He is a viable starter, but the model does not currently project a surplus above what replacement-level tight end production looks like in a 12-team league.
It matters a lot. He saw 120 targets in 2023, 83 in 2024, and just 49 in 2025. The three-year average is 84 targets per season. Whether he recovers toward the high end of that range or continues declining is the central question around his 2026 outlook.
Market ADP puts him at pick 82.2 — round 7, pick 10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, that is the window the market says you need to spend a pick.
He caught 10 receiving touchdowns in 2023 and 7 in 2024 before dropping to 3 in 2025. His three-year average is 6.7 receiving touchdowns per season, which frames the realistic range — the ceiling is closer to his 2023 mark, the floor closer to 2025.