Sam LaPorta — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Sam LaPorta's 2023 debut is the anchor of his case: 120 targets, 86 receptions, 889 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in his first NFL season. That kind of immediate volume at tight end is rare, and it established him as a genuine target-share asset in Detroit's offense. The three-year aggregate tells a more complicated story, with receiving yards averaging 701.3, receptions 62, targets 84, and touchdowns 6.7 per season, reflecting the step-downs in 2024 and 2025. But the floor that 2023 demonstrated is real. A drafter who believes LaPorta can recapture even a portion of that early usage has a legitimate argument for his upside at the position.

What the model projects

The projection is 115.4 half-PPR fantasy points. LaPorta ranks #85 overall and TE7 at his position, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -4.4, meaning the projection lands just below replacement level for tight ends in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 115.4 sits below the median simulated season of 125.9, so the distribution leans toward outcomes above the headline number more often than below it. He carries a bye in Week 6.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 60.2 points, a figure that would make him a near-irrelevant roster spot. The 25th percentile lands at 90.5. The median simulated season is 125.9 points. The 75th percentile reaches 148.3, and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at 175.8 points or better. That 115.6-point spread between the p10 and p90 reflects genuine season-to-season variance. The three-year history backs that up: his actual stat lines have moved substantially from year to year, with targets ranging from 49 to 120 across the three seasons on record.

How to draft him

Market ADP has LaPorta going at pick 79.3, which translates to Round 7, pick 7 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. His model rank is #85 overall. In practical terms, you are looking at a mid-to-late seventh round commitment to land him. At TE7, he is a depth-of-position play rather than an early-round anchor. Given his Week 6 bye, plan your roster construction accordingly if you take him in that range.

He projects at 115.4 half-PPR points and ranks TE7, sitting in Tier 9 with a draft value of -4.4, just below replacement level. He is a viable starter at the position but not a locked-in weekly advantage. His upside is real: 10% of simulated seasons reach 175.8 points or better. His downside is also real: 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 60.2 points.

Market ADP puts him at pick 79.3, or Round 7, pick 7 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the range where he is currently coming off the board.

LaPorta posted 120 targets, 86 receptions, 889 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2023. In 2024 those numbers dropped to 83 targets, 60 receptions, 726 yards, and 7 touchdowns. In 2025 they fell further to 49 targets, 40 receptions, 489 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The three-year averages are 84 targets, 62 receptions, 701.3 yards, and 6.7 touchdowns per season.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 175.8 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 148.3. Those are the top-end outcomes the projection band supports.