#77 overall · HOU · 116.8 projected half-PPR pts · -0.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 59.3
David Montgomery — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
David Montgomery has been a reliable touchdown producer for three straight seasons. Over the 2023–2025 span, he averaged 11 rush touchdowns per year, and in two of those three seasons he reached double digits on the ground alone. He also brings a consistent receiving floor — 25.3 receptions and 216.7 receiving yards per season over that same stretch — which keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats even when the rushing volume dips. His three-year average of 187.3 rush attempts shows he can handle a featured workload, and his 2023 campaign (219 carries, 1,015 rush yards, 13 rush touchdowns) is a reminder of what the ceiling looks like when everything clicks. Now with Houston, he enters a new situation with a fresh opportunity to reclaim that kind of role.
What the model projects
The model projects Montgomery at 116.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value sits at -0.1, placing him at RB26 and #77 overall in Tier 9. That projection reflects a back who can contribute in both the run game and as a receiver, but whose recent volume trends — 158 rush attempts and 716 rush yards in 2025, down from his 2023 peak — keep the ceiling measured. The point estimate of 116.8 is essentially at replacement level for the position, which is exactly what the near-zero draft value signals.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 1015 | 13 | 24 | 16 | 117 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 197.2 |
| 2024 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 775 | 12 | 38 | 36 | 341 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 203.7 |
| 2025 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 716 | 8 | 29 | 24 | 192 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 152.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 1 | 0.7 | 2 | 0.7 | — | 187.3 | 835.3 | 11 | 30.3 | 25.3 | 216.7 | — | 2 | — | — | 186.7 |
The range of outcomes
Montgomery's season-to-season history illustrates the variance baked into his profile. His rushing touchdown totals have ranged from 8 (2025) to 13 (2023), and his rush attempts have swung from 158 to 219 across the same window. That spread — driven largely by role definition and touchdown luck — is the core risk. In a good outcome, he recaptures something close to his 2023 workload in Houston and the touchdowns flow at a double-digit rate. In a bad outcome, his carry share stays compressed, the touchdowns regress toward his 2025 level, and the receiving work (29 targets, 24 receptions in 2025) isn't enough to compensate. Fumbles have been a consistent presence — two per season in each of the last three years, with one lost each time — which is a minor but real floor-suppressor.
How to draft him
Montgomery's market ADP is 59.3, which works out to pick 5.11 in a 12-team snake draft (median across two platforms). Our model has him at RB26 and #77 overall in Tier 9. If you want him, the market is currently pricing him in the fifth round. His bye is Week 8, so plan your roster depth accordingly. At his projection and draft value, he profiles as a depth piece or handcuff-adjacent option rather than a building-block starter — draft him with that role in mind.
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Questions drafters ask
He averaged 11 rush touchdowns per season from 2023 to 2025, hitting 13 in 2023, 12 in 2024, and 8 in 2025. He has not scored a receiving touchdown in any of those three seasons.
Over the last three seasons he averaged 30.3 targets, 25.3 receptions, and 216.7 receiving yards per year. His best receiving season in that window was 2024, when he caught 36 of 38 targets for 341 yards.
He is RB26 and #77 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -0.1. That near-zero figure means he projects essentially at replacement level for the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR league.
His market ADP is 59.3 — pick 5.11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the round where you would need to spend a pick to secure him.