David Montgomery — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

David Montgomery arrives in Houston with a three-year track record that is hard to dismiss. From 2023 through 2025 he averaged 187.3 rush attempts, 835.3 rush yards, 11 rushing touchdowns, and 30.3 targets per season. The touchdown production is the headline: 13 rushing scores in 2023, 12 in 2024, and 8 in 2025, for a three-year average of 11 per season. That kind of red-zone consistency is what keeps a running back relevant in half-PPR formats even when the yardage totals fluctuate. His receiving work has grown, too. He caught 36 of 38 targets for 341 yards in 2024, then 24 of 29 for 192 yards in 2025, giving him a three-year average of 25.3 receptions on 30.3 looks. He is a back who contributes in multiple phases, and his draftValue sits at +10.1, meaning the projection puts him above replacement level at the position.

What the model projects

The projection for Montgomery is 137.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That places him at RB27 by position rank and #59 overall, landing him in Tier 8. His draftValue of +10.1 confirms he projects above the replacement-level baseline for running backs in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 143.5 points, a touch above the point estimate, which reflects a slight upward skew in the distribution of outcomes.

The range of outcomes

Montgomery's outcome band is wide, which is consistent with the volatility that defines the running back position. In a bottom-10% season (p10) he finishes at 50.7 points. The 25th-percentile floor is 92.3 points. The median sits at 143.5, the 75th percentile at 189.7, and a top-10% breakout reaches 228.8 points. That is a spread of roughly 178 points from the bad end to the great end. The floor is real: 50.7 points in a rough season is a near-total loss of fantasy value. But the ceiling at 228.8 is meaningful, and his three-year average of 11 rushing touchdowns per season is the clearest path to the upper half of that band. Fumbles are a consistent presence in his history, two per season in each of the last three years, with one lost each time; that is a known drag on his floor.

How to draft him

Montgomery is ranked #59 overall and RB27. His market ADP is 51.0, which works out to pick 5.03 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means the market is pulling him off the table in the fifth round. If you want him, that is the window you are working with. His bye is Week 8, worth noting for roster planning in the middle of the season. Given the width of his outcome band, he fits best as a depth piece or a handcuff-level starter rather than a cornerstone of a lineup, but the +10.1 draftValue means he is not a throwaway pick at that stage of the draft.

He has been one of the more consistent touchdown scorers at the position: 13 rushing TDs in 2023, 12 in 2024, and 8 in 2025, for a three-year average of 11 rushing touchdowns per season.

The p10 outcome, meaning a bottom-10% simulated season, lands at 50.7 half-PPR points. The 25th-percentile outcome is 92.3 points. Those are the numbers that define the downside.

His market ADP is 51.0, which translates to pick 5.03 in a 12-team snake draft. That median is drawn from two platforms, so the fifth round is where the market is currently pricing him.

Yes. He went from 16 receptions on 24 targets in 2023 to 36 receptions on 38 targets in 2024, then 24 receptions on 29 targets in 2025. His three-year average is 25.3 catches on 30.3 targets per season, which adds a meaningful floor of reception points in half-PPR formats.