#51 overall · NE · 143.8 projected half-PPR pts · +16.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 71.0
Rhamondre Stevenson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Three consecutive seasons of lead-back volume in New England. Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 164.3 rush attempts, 43 targets, and 34.3 receptions per year from 2023 through 2025. The touchdown production has been consistent: 6 rushing scores per season on average over that span, with 7 in each of the last two years. The receiving work adds a floor that pure runners cannot match, and the three-year averages of 250.3 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown per season confirm he is a genuine pass-game participant. RB25 with a positive draft value of +16.6 points above replacement is the reward for that workload.
What the model projects
The projection is 143.8 half-PPR points. That sits above replacement level at the position, reflected in a draft value of +16.6. Stevenson ranks #51 overall and RB25, placed in Tier 7. The median simulated season lands at 151.2 points, a touch above the point estimate, which is consistent with a back whose volume gives him a reasonable floor.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 156 | 619 | 4 | 51 | 38 | 238 | — | 1 | 126.7 |
| 2024 | 207 | 801 | 7 | 41 | 33 | 168 | 1 | 7 | 155.4 |
| 2025 | 130 | 603 | 7 | 37 | 32 | 345 | 2 | 3 | 158.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 164.3 | 674.3 | 6 | 43 | 34.3 | 250.3 | 1 | 3.7 | 151.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. A bottom-10-percent season comes in at 55.2 points, a number that reflects how badly things can go when carries and catches dry up. The 25th percentile is 98.8 points, still a meaningful step below the projection. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 197.8 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 235.8. The fumble history is the clearest risk factor in the stat line: 7 fumbles and 3 lost in 2024, then 3 fumbles and 3 lost in 2025. Ball security is the variable most likely to push outcomes toward the lower end of that band. Rush attempts also dipped to 130 in 2025 after 207 in 2024, a swing that illustrates how volatile the carry share can be.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 71.0, which works out to pick 6.11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #51 overall. Plan to spend a sixth-round pick if you want him. His bye is Week 11, which is worth noting for playoff-schedule planning. The wide outcome band means he fits best in rosters that can absorb a low-end result without collapsing, so pairing him with a higher-floor back elsewhere on the roster is a reasonable construction.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection is 143.8 half-PPR points. He ranks #51 overall and RB25, in Tier 7, with a draft value of +16.6 points above replacement.
Over 2023 through 2025 he averaged 164.3 rush attempts, 43 targets, 34.3 receptions, 674.3 rush yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns per season.
Market ADP is 71.0, which translates to pick 6.11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 55.2 points. The fumble history is the most visible risk: he lost 3 fumbles in both 2024 and 2025, and his rush attempts dropped from 207 in 2024 to 130 in 2025, showing how quickly the carry share can shift.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →