#79 overall · MIN · 124.3 projected half-PPR pts · -0.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 93.1
Jordan Addison — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jordan Addison has posted back-to-back seasons of 875-plus receiving yards and nine-plus receiving touchdowns in 2023 and 2024, doing it on a target share that averaged 108 and 99 looks respectively. The three-year averages tell a similar story: 95.3 targets, 58.3 receptions, 798.7 receiving yards, and 7.3 receiving touchdowns per season. That touchdown rate is real production, not noise. The 2025 line — 79 targets, 42 receptions, 610 yards, 3 receiving touchdowns — is a step back from those peaks, but the underlying target volume still represents a meaningful role in the offense. For a drafter hunting late-round upside at receiver, Addison's established floor in a pass-heavy system and his history of finding the end zone are the core of the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 124.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits just below the three-year average production pace and reflects a WR36 profile. His draft value is -0.8, placing him at #79 overall in Tier 9. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 123.0 points, essentially in line with the point estimate, which signals a relatively symmetric distribution around the projection.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 108 | 70 | 911 | 10 | 1 | 2 | — | 186.3 |
| 2024 | 99 | 63 | 875 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 181.0 |
| 2025 | 79 | 42 | 610 | 3 | 2 | 81 | 1 | 114.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 95.3 | 58.3 | 798.7 | 7.3 | 2 | 34.3 | 0.7 | 160.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 49.8 points — a near-total collapse in production. The 25th percentile lands at 83.4 points, still a disappointing fantasy season. The median is 123.0 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 158.0 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons hit 198.4 points or better. That 198.4 ceiling is meaningful for a player going in the eighth round. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes spans nearly 149 points, so drafters should enter with eyes open: this is a high-variance profile, not a steady-floor one. His bye falls in Week 6.
(bottom 10%)
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is taking Addison at pick 93.1 on average, which works out to the 8.09 slot in a 12-team draft. That is based on a median across two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a precise consensus. He ranks #79 overall and WR36 in this model. In a standard 12-team snake draft, the realistic window to secure him is around that eighth-round turn. Given the wide outcome band, he fits best as a depth piece or flex option rather than a cornerstone of a roster build.
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Questions drafters ask
He has seen 108, 99, and 79 targets across the 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons respectively, for a three-year average of 95.3 targets per year. The volume has trended downward, but he has remained a consistent part of the target distribution in Minnesota's offense.
Addison scored 10 receiving touchdowns in 2023 and 9 in 2024. The 2025 season produced 3 receiving touchdowns plus 1 rushing touchdown. Over three years the averages work out to 7.3 receiving touchdowns and 0.7 rushing touchdowns per season, so the end-zone production has been a genuine part of his profile even if 2025 was a down year.
The market ADP is 93.1, which translates to pick 8.09 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, plan to spend a pick around that eighth-round window.
The simulated season band runs from 49.8 points at the 10th percentile to 198.4 points at the 90th percentile. The median outcome is 123.0 points. That nearly 149-point spread between the floor and ceiling makes him one of the higher-variance options at the WR36 tier.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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