#74 overall · MIN · 122.5 projected half-PPR pts · +0.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 98.3
Jordan Addison — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jordan Addison has been a consistent presence in the Minnesota offense across three seasons. He averaged 95.3 targets, 58.3 receptions, 798.7 receiving yards, and 7.3 receiving touchdowns per year from 2023 through 2025. His two best seasons — 2023 and 2024 — showed a receiver capable of genuine touchdown volume, posting 10 scores in 2023 on 108 targets and 9 scores in 2024 on 99 targets. That kind of red-zone involvement is real and repeatable. The 2025 season was a step back in volume (79 targets, 42 receptions, 610 yards, 3 touchdowns), but the three-year average smooths that dip and still reflects a receiver who sees meaningful work in a productive passing offense. At WR37, the bar for value is low — any rebound toward his 2023–2024 form makes him a productive late-round contributor.
What the model projects
The model projects Addison for 122.5 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. His draft value sits at exactly +0.0, meaning he projects right at replacement level for his position — neither a surplus nor a deficit against the 12-team half-PPR baseline. He ranks #74 overall and WR37, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. This is a projection built on a three-year track record that includes two strong seasons and one down year, landing at a point estimate that reflects the uncertainty around which version of Addison shows up.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 108 | 70 | 911 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 186.3 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 99 | 63 | 875 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 181.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 81 | 1 | 79 | 42 | 610 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 114.1 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 34.3 | 0.7 | 95.3 | 58.3 | 798.7 | 7.3 | — | — | 160.5 |
The range of outcomes
Addison's season history tells the story of his variance clearly. In 2023 he posted 911 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on 108 targets — a high-end WR2 outcome. In 2024 he produced 875 yards and 9 touchdowns on 99 targets — nearly identical. Then in 2025 his targets dropped to 79, receptions fell to 42, yards to 610, and touchdowns to just 3. That is a wide band of real outcomes already on record. A season closer to 2023–2024 form — 900-plus yards and 9–10 touchdowns — would make him a significant producer well above his WR37 rank. A repeat of 2025 would leave him well below replacement level. The touchdown rate is the key variable: when it's there, the rest of the stat line follows.
How to draft him
Addison's market ADP is 98.3, which works out to pick 9.02 in a 12-team snake draft — that is when you would need to spend a pick to secure him. That sits later than his #74 overall rank. He carries a bye in Week 6, so plan your roster depth accordingly for that early-season gap. At this stage of the draft, he is a dart throw on a receiver with proven upside — the 2023 and 2024 seasons are real, and the 2025 dip is equally real. Draft him as a depth piece with a clear ceiling if the target share and touchdown volume return.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the past three seasons Addison averaged 95.3 targets per year. He saw 108 in 2023, 99 in 2024, and 79 in 2025. The 2025 dip is notable, but the two prior seasons show he can command a meaningful share of the Minnesota passing game. Whether that volume returns is the central question around his 2026 outlook.
Very. In 2023 he scored 10 receiving touchdowns; in 2024, 9. Those seasons drove his fantasy production well above his yardage totals alone. In 2025 he scored just 3 receiving touchdowns, and his fantasy value dropped sharply despite still playing. His three-year average of 7.3 receiving touchdowns reflects how central red-zone work is to his floor and ceiling.
His market ADP is 98.3, which translates to pick 9.02 in a 12-team draft. That is the ninth round, second pick — plan accordingly if he is on your target list.
The model projects him for 122.5 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him #74 overall and WR37. He sits in Tier 9 with a draft value of exactly +0.0, meaning he projects right at replacement level for his position.