Riley Patterson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Patterson's 2025 season is the clearest argument in his favor. He connected on 27 of 29 field goal attempts, missing just 2, and converted 34 of 35 extra point tries. Eleven of those makes came from 40-49 yards and three from 50-plus, showing he can produce from distance. That accuracy rate and volume represent a meaningful step forward from his 2023 work, when he went 16-of-18 on field goals with 41 extra points, and a sharp rebound from a limited 2024 campaign in which he attempted only 7 field goals. The three-year averages tell a more cautious story: 15.7 field goals and 30.3 extra points per season, reflecting how uneven his opportunity has been. But the 2025 line is the most recent evidence, and it is the strongest he has produced.

What the model projects

The projection is 85.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits well below his 2025 actual output, reflecting the variance baked into kicker seasons across a full three-year sample. His draft value is -84.0, placing him at K31 and #315 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a position where replacement-level production is relatively accessible, and Patterson's projection does not clear that bar.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for kickers. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile reaches only 8.1. The median simulated season comes in at 61.7 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 116.6 and the 90th percentile reaches 148.9. That top-end figure is consistent with what a full, high-volume season can produce, as his 2025 line demonstrated. The floor, however, is real. A quarter of simulated seasons project fewer than 8.1 points, a reminder of how quickly kicker value can evaporate when opportunity dries up.

How to draft him

Patterson is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. In practice, that means he is available as a late-round or post-draft addition in most leagues. At K31 and #315 overall, he is a depth option rather than a target. His bye falls in Week 6, worth noting when setting your kicker rotation. If you are building a two-kicker strategy or streaming late, his 2025 accuracy and distance range make him a reasonable name to keep in mind, but the projection and draft value both signal he is a back-of-roster consideration.

He sits at K31 and #315 overall with a draft value of -84.0, meaning the projection does not clear replacement level at the position. He has no market ADP, which suggests most drafters are not spending a pick on him at all. His 2025 season was strong, 27-of-29 on field goals with 34 extra points, but the three-year average is 15.7 field goals per season, and the median simulated outcome is 61.7 points.

His three seasons show real variation. In 2023 he went 16-of-18 on field goals with 41 extra points. In 2024 he attempted only 7 field goals, making 4. In 2025 he posted his best line: 27-of-29 on field goals, 34-of-35 on extra points, with 11 makes from 40-49 yards and 3 from 50-plus. The three-year averages are 15.7 field goals and 30.3 extra points per season.

The 90th-percentile simulated season reaches 148.9 half-PPR points, and the 75th percentile is 116.6. His 2025 season, with 27 field goals and 34 extra points, shows what a high-volume year can look like in practice. The floor is the real risk: the 10th percentile is 0.0 points and the 25th percentile is just 8.1.

He does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is effectively an undrafted free agent in most leagues, available off the waiver wire rather than requiring a pick.