#217 overall · PIT · 69.3 projected half-PPR pts · -51.3 Draft Value
Pat Freiermuth — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Pat Freiermuth's best season on record is 2024: 65 receptions on 78 targets for 653 yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. That is a legitimate TE1 stat line, and it establishes a ceiling that is real, not theoretical. His three-year averages across 2023-2025 sit at 46 receptions, 59.7 targets, 482.3 receiving yards, and 4.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The target volume is consistent enough to support a weekly role, and the 2024 touchdown rate shows what the upside looks like when things break right. For a drafter willing to wait at the position, Freiermuth offers a known floor built on reliable target share and a demonstrated peak worth chasing.
What the model projects
The projection is 69.3 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. The median simulated outcome lands at 72.6 points, close to the point estimate. His draft value is -51.3, placing him at TE28 and #217 overall. He sits in Tier 9. The projection reflects a season that tracks closer to his 2025 line (41 receptions, 54 targets, 486 yards, 4 touchdowns) than to his 2024 peak. His bye week is Week 9.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 47 | 32 | 308 | 2 | — | 58.8 |
| 2024 | 78 | 65 | 653 | 7 | 2 | 137.8 |
| 2025 | 54 | 41 | 486 | 4 | — | 93.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 59.7 | 46 | 482.3 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 97.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Freiermuth finishes at 24.0 points, a near-zero-value result. The 25th percentile is 44.7 points. The median is 72.6. The 75th percentile reaches 96.3 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons land at 127.5 points. That upper tail, anchored by the 2024 precedent of 7 receiving touchdowns, is meaningful. The downside, anchored by his 2023 line of 32 receptions, 308 yards, and 2 touchdowns, is equally real. This is a high-variance profile: the gap between a bad season and a great one is over 100 points.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Freiermuth is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. His rank is TE28 and #217 overall. At that position in the rankings, he is a late-round or undrafted target depending on how your draft unfolds. The negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the position, so the case for rostering him rests entirely on the upside band and the 2024 precedent. If you are building depth at tight end late or looking for a high-variance dart throw, his profile fits that role. Do not count on the median; draft him only if the top-10% outcome at 127.5 points is the version you are specifically targeting.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he caught 65 passes on 78 targets for 653 receiving yards and 7 receiving touchdowns, with 2 fumbles and 1 fumble lost.
The projection is 69.3 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 72.6 points. His draft value is -51.3, ranking him TE28 and #217 overall in Tier 9.
The band runs from 24.0 points at the 10th percentile to 127.5 points at the 90th percentile. The downside is grounded in his 2023 season: 32 receptions, 47 targets, 308 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
There is no market ADP available for him, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. His rank is TE28 and #217 overall, which puts him in late-round or undrafted territory in most 12-team drafts.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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