#79 overall · JAX · 122.1 projected half-PPR pts · -0.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 70.4
Parker Washington — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Parker Washington's 2025 season was a clear step forward. He posted 847 receiving yards on 95 targets with 58 receptions and 5 receiving touchdowns — all career highs. That followed a 2024 line of 390 yards, 51 targets, 32 receptions, and 3 touchdowns, and a limited 2023 debut of 132 yards on 21 targets. The trajectory is real and consistent: each season has brought more volume and more production. The 2025 breakout gives him a credible floor heading into 2026, and his role in Jacksonville's offense appears to have grown into something durable.
What the model projects
Washington projects at 122.1 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places him #79 overall and WR38, landing in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -0.4, which means he projects just a hair below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The projection reflects a player whose 2025 numbers were a genuine improvement but whose three-year averages — 456.3 receiving yards, 35.3 receptions, 55.7 targets, and 3.3 receiving touchdowns per season — still anchor the baseline.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 16 | 132 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 31.2 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 32 | 390 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 73.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 58 | 847 | 5 | — | 0 | 0 | 143.7 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 2.3 | 0 | — | 55.7 | 35.3 | 456.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | — | — | 83.1 |
The range of outcomes
Washington's season-outcome band is wide enough to matter. A bad season (p10) lands at the low end of the distribution, while a great season (p90) reflects the upside his 2025 showed is achievable. The variance here is real: his target share and touchdown rate have fluctuated year to year, and a fumble in both 2023 and 2024 (with a confirmed lost fumble in 2023) is a small but present ball-security note. The upside case is a repeat or extension of 2025. The downside case is a regression toward his earlier, lower-volume seasons. His bye falls in Week 7.
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Washington at pick 70.4 on average — that's round 6, pick 10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our model has him at #79 overall and WR38. If you want him, the market suggests you'll need to spend a mid-sixth-round pick to secure him. At that draft slot, you're betting on the 2025 breakout holding rather than reverting to his earlier averages. Know that going in.
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Questions drafters ask
The 2025 numbers are the strongest of his career — 847 receiving yards, 95 targets, 58 receptions, and 5 touchdowns — and they represent a meaningful jump from 390 yards and 51 targets in 2024. That said, his three-year average still sits at 456.3 receiving yards and 55.7 targets per season, so the model's 122.1-point projection reflects both the 2025 peak and the earlier, lighter seasons.
Based on a median ADP of 70.4 across two platforms, he's going in round 6, pick 10 of a 12-team draft. Plan accordingly if he's on your board.
Just below. His draft value is -0.4, meaning the model projects him essentially at replacement level for the WR position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks WR38 and #79 overall.
The p90 outcome — the top 10% of his simulated seasons — represents the ceiling. His 2025 season (847 yards, 5 TDs, 95 targets) gives a concrete reference point for what a strong year looks like. The downside (p10) reflects a regression closer to his 2023–2024 production levels.