#246 overall · NYJ · 61.5 projected half-PPR pts · -66.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 182.7
Braelon Allen — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Braelon Allen's 2024 season is the clearest argument in his favor. He logged 92 rush attempts for 334 yards, caught 19 of 27 targets for 148 receiving yards, and scored three total touchdowns. That receiving involvement, 27 targets in a single season, shows he can contribute as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, which matters in half-PPR formats. The three-year aggregate tells a similar story in miniature: 55 rush attempts, 15 targets, and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per season on average. He has demonstrated he can handle a workload when given the opportunity, and his bye falls in Week 13, late enough that it rarely disrupts a playoff push.
What the model projects
The projection is 61.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That places Allen at RB54 and #246 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -66.7, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where he stands in the rankings right now, not a ceiling or a floor.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 92 | 334 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 148 | 1 | — | 75.7 |
| 2025 | 18 | 76 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 17 | — | 1 | 14.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 55 | 205 | 1.5 | 15 | 10.5 | 82.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 46.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of Allen's outlook. The median simulated season lands at 50.3 points. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces just 5.3 points, essentially a non-factor campaign. The 25th percentile sits at 21.3 points, still a very limited contribution. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 91.7 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons climbs to 133.0 points. That upper band represents a genuinely useful fantasy asset; the lower band represents a roster spot that returns almost nothing. The gap between p10 and p90 is 127.7 points, so the outcome here is highly variable. His 2025 line, 18 rush attempts, 76 yards, 2 receptions, and a fumble lost, illustrates how quickly the floor can materialize.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Allen's market ADP is 182.7, which works out to the third pick of Round 16 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. At that stage of a draft, roster spots are cheap and the cost of a miss is low. If you are building depth at running back late and want a back with a demonstrated receiving role and a high-upside tail, Allen is a name to have on your radar in the final rounds. Just know the floor is real: the 2025 stat line and the p10 outcome of 5.3 points are both on the table.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 92 times for 334 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, and added 19 receptions on 27 targets for 148 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown.
The projection is 61.5 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him RB54 and #246 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -66.7.
Very wide. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons ends at 5.3 points; the top 10 percent reaches 133.0 points. The median simulated season is 50.3 points.
His market ADP is 182.7, which translates to the third pick of Round 16 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
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Beyond the numbers
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