New England Patriots — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The Patriots have shown some genuine defensive competence over the three-year window. They averaged 32.7 sacks, 9 interceptions, and 7.3 fumble recoveries per season from 2023 through 2025. The 2025 season was the clearest bright spot in that stretch: 34 sacks, 10 interceptions, 9 fumble recoveries, 4 defensive touchdowns, and points allowed dropping to 320 after two seasons above 366. That is a real improvement in the categories that drive fantasy DST scoring, and it is the most recent data point the model has to work with.

What the model projects

The projection is 104.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. The draft value is -41.6, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the DST position in a 12-team half-PPR format. New England ranks DST24 at the position and #184 overall, placing the unit in Tier 9. The bye week is Week 11.

The range of outcomes

The three-year history illustrates how wide DST variance can run. Points allowed swung from 320 in 2025 to 417 in 2024. Sacks ranged from 28 to 36. Interceptions held steadier, landing at 10 in both 2023 and 2025 with a dip to 7 in between. Defensive touchdowns went from 1 in 2023, none recorded in 2024, to 4 in 2025. That kind of year-to-year swing is the nature of the position, and the 2025 rebound does not guarantee it holds. A drafter banking on the 2025 version of this defense is making a bet on the high end of a historically volatile range.

How to draft him

New England is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick cost to plan around. At DST24 and #184 overall with a negative draft value, this unit belongs in the final rounds of a 12-team draft, if it is rostered at all. The 2025 improvement is real, but the projection reflects a unit that still sits below replacement level. Target him only as a late-round streaming option or a handcuff to a higher-ranked DST, and keep the bye week in mind when building your Week 11 plan.

The model projects 104.2 points with a draft value of -41.6, placing New England at DST24 and #184 overall in Tier 9. That is below replacement level, so the unit does not project as a net-positive roster asset in a standard 12-team half-PPR format.

The 2025 season showed meaningful gains: 34 sacks, 10 interceptions, 9 fumble recoveries, 4 defensive touchdowns, and 320 points allowed. That compares favorably to 2024, when they allowed 417 points and recorded only 28 sacks and 7 interceptions. The three-year averages (32.7 sacks, 9 interceptions, 7.3 fumble recoveries) reflect a unit that has been inconsistent across the window.

There is no market ADP available, meaning the unit is not being consistently drafted across platforms. Given the DST24 position rank and a negative draft value, New England fits as a late-round target only, used primarily as a streaming option.

New England's bye is Week 11. DST is one of the most streamable positions, so if you roster the Patriots as your primary unit, you will need a replacement lined up for that week. Factor that into how early you are willing to commit a pick.