#193 overall · DEN · 85.5 projected half-PPR pts · -43.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 224.6
Troy Franklin — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Troy Franklin's 2025 season was a genuine step forward. He turned 104 targets into 65 receptions for 709 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, a sharp improvement over his 2024 line of 53 targets, 28 catches, 263 yards, and 2 scores. The target volume alone — 104 in a single season — is the kind of usage that signals a real role in the offense. His 3-year averages (78.5 targets, 46.5 receptions, 486 receiving yards, 4 receiving touchdowns per season) are pulled down by limited early-career exposure, so the 2025 line is the more relevant data point for projecting forward. For a drafter hunting late-round upside, Franklin's 2025 production is the foundation of the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 85.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position: his draft value is -43.2, placing him at WR73 and #193 overall in Tier 9. The point estimate is modest, and the position rank reflects that. This is a depth-chart projection, not a featured-receiver one.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 53 | 28 | 263 | 2 | 2 | 8 | — | 53.1 |
| 2025 | 104 | 65 | 709 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 138.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 78.5 | 46.5 | 486 | 4 | 3.5 | 10 | 0.5 | 96.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The median outcome (p50) is 67.0 points, which is actually below the 85.5 point estimate, signaling that the distribution is skewed by a relatively small number of high-end outcomes pulling the projection upward. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 15.1 points (p10), and the 25th percentile is 35.4 points — a large portion of outcomes cluster in low-production territory. The upside is real but concentrated: the 75th percentile is 103.5 points and the 90th percentile reaches 155.7 points. Franklin's 2025 season (709 yards, 6 touchdowns) lives somewhere in that upper band. The floor is very low; the ceiling is meaningful but not frequently reached.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Franklin's market ADP is 224.6, which works out to pick 19.09 in a 12-team draft (based on two platform sources). He is ranked #193 overall. In practical terms, you are unlikely to need to spend a pick before Round 19 to land him. At that stage of a draft, roster construction is about ceiling hunting and handcuff stacking. Franklin fits that role: a late-round flier with a documented 2025 breakout and a p90 outcome of 155.7 points. His bye is Week 10. Plan accordingly if you carry him into the season.
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Questions drafters ask
He produced. In 2025 Franklin posted 104 targets, 65 receptions, 709 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns. That is a real season of work, not a projection built on a handful of games.
His market ADP is 224.6, which translates to pick 19.09 in a 12-team draft. Based on two platform sources, you are unlikely to need to spend a pick before Round 19.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 155.7 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 103.5. Those are the outcomes in the top quarter of his simulated seasons; the majority of outcomes land well below them, with a p50 of 67.0 points.
His draft value is -43.2 and he ranks WR73, which means the projection sits below replacement level at the position. The case for rostering him rests entirely on the late-round cost and the skewed upside in his outcome band, not on the point estimate itself.
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Beyond the numbers
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